NFL Picks for Winners: Trusted NFL Predictions by Proven Experts
When the long-awaited NFL season finally begins, it’s time to start thinking about how to bet on the games and find the NFL picks that work best for you. There are different ways the experts in this field provide their NFL predictions and in this article, we’ll cover all of them. We will also show in detail the betting markets where the specialists are doing their picking for uncovering the NFL best bets for you. And, of course, we will present you with special free NFL picks by our top guns in How To Bet with a really high success rate. First of all though, let’s start with answering probably the most important question in NFL betting: why should you choose NFL expert picks over going it alone?
NFL Expert Picks: Why Picking Should be Done by Specialists
Unearthing the NFL best bets can be a tough task even for the most experienced bettors. There are a lot of experts out there supplying both free NFL picks and picks behind a pay-wall. Here are some pretty good reasons why you should trust an expert when making your NFL picks this week.
It will save you precious time, so you can concentrate on other important things in your life – the experts are doing the heavy lifting for you.
They have access to much more advanced statistics and data than you at home.
The experts work with algorithms and models that have been tried and tested for NFL picks for years.
They have links to better sources and follow the news stream from both the league and the teams in a very detailed manner.
You may look at games from a more biased point of view, whereas an expert will always look at a given game objectively.
These five reasons should be more than enough to answer this fundamental question. Of course, you must always check the authority of the pickers and trust them after they’ve proved their worth in time. Once they gain your trust, follow their NFL predictions and you will make much more successful bets than unsuccessful ones. If they know what they are doing, rest assured that they will win you plenty of money. And if they don’t charge you for it, all the better! How To Bet is one of these rare sources of free NFL expert picks with high success rates, so check out our new predictions for this week.
Our NFL predictions for This Week
49ers @ Packers – NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Picks
For the third year in a row, the Packers won at least 13 regular-season games under head coach Matt LaFleur but they are yet to achieve a Super Bowl berth. In his illustrious career QB Aaron Rodgers has won basically everything. Three-time MVP (soon to be four), 449 TD passes, 10-time Pro Bowler, four-time first-team All-Pro, Super Bowl champion, and so on. But there’s one thing he had never achieved – a playoff win over the 49ers. Not only Rodgers is 0-3 but only one of those games was one possession. The last time they met the Niners beats Green Bay 37-20 in the NFC Championship Game. And they know exactly how to do it again.
Back on September 26th Rodgers led a furious rally in the last minute on the way to a 30-28 victory in Week 3 of the season. That night the Niners were struck by injuries at RB and were forced to rely on rookie Trey Sermon. Their ground attack was non-existent and they finished with a mere 67 yards rushing. QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw an ugly INT into triple coverage yet the Niners were seconds away from eking an unlikely win.
On Saturday head coach Kyle Shanahan will have RB Elijah Mitchell available alongside Deebo Samuel leading the two-headed ground monster. The Niners finished the regular season fifth in DVOA running the football while Packers’ defense was ranked 28th against the run. Two years ago SF ran 42 times compared to just 8 passes and you should expect more of the same in the rematch.
The biggest problem for the Niners is the status of Nick Bosa. The DE took a knee to the head and went out before halftime in their 23-17 Wild Card win against Dallas. Bosa went through the concussion protocol in just two days and was able to practice on Wednesday but is still questionable to play. Without him San Francisco will be hard pressed to have a competent pass rush and with a clean pocket at his disposal Rodgers likes to dissect opposing secondaries.
These two teams do not match that well. Alongside Niners’ advantage on the ground, GB has a favorable matchup through the air as SF 16th ranked defense will have to find a way and stop the second best passing attack in the league. Everything points to a game, where the last team to have the ball should get the win. The line has been hovering around GB -6 since Tuesday but this is not what I like in my NFL Divisional Round predictions. Do not hesitate to bet on a high scoring game on a cold Saturday night in Green Bay.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Over 46.5 (-111)
Bengals @ Titans – NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Picks
Many feel that the Titans do not deserve to be a #1 seed. They were beaten at home by the Texans, went on a 1-3 stretch from the middle of November all the way to Christmas but thanks to some timely help by the Bengals sneaked their way to a home-field advantage. And it will be just the fifth playoff game ever played in Nashville.
Titans’ season can be split in two: they were 8-3 with RB Derrick Henry or WR A.J. Brown in the lineup, went 2-3 with both of them being on IR and once Brown got healthy got on a three-game winning streak to close out the regular season. And now with Henry expected back in action on Saturday they will be close to full strength just in time for the final stretch.
Judging by the stats Tennessee had absolutely no business being #1. According to DVOA, they are ranked #20 as a team, #20 on offense, and #12 on defense and among playoff teams only Las Vegas and Pittsburgh have worse stats. However, the weighted DVOA (which takes into account the recent form) elevates them to #8 so do not underestimate their form.
At the same time Cincinnati is ranked 19th in total defensive DVOA but only 24th in weighted. A week ago they allowed 6.4 YPA to RB Josh Jacobs who is a far cry from Henry even though they both are a product of the same Alabama system. If the Bengals are so porous on Saturday this may become a very long day for them.
I like Cincinnati a lot and I think they are an exciting team who will be a major force in the AFC in the years to come. I just think it’s a little too early for them for a Super Bowl push. They should hang around long enough to make it an interesting game but in the end I recommend backing the Titans.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Titans Money Line (-179)
NFL Picks in brief
NFL Picks & NFL Predictions: What Are They
There are thousands and thousands of betting possibilities each week, so making your selected few NFL picks is such hard work. Every bettor can be excused for feeling lost in this ocean of opportunities and not knowing which his next step should be. That’s why many prefer to turn to other people who unearth the hidden gems for them and present them with the NFL best bets.
In terms of who is the provider, there are three main types of NFL betting picks: by ordinary people, computer-generated, and by experts. The first type of picks is made by regular football fans. Those generated by computers are based on advanced stats and provide great value. They lack the human hunch though and that’s where the NFL expert picks to win – they combine the best statistical algorithms and the hunch of the experienced observers. ESPN is an excellent example for trusted picks.
Some of these three types of picks are shared with the public without charge, while others are unfortunately locked behind paywalls. You will find all kinds of NFL predictions on websites with different authorities, on YouTube, in blogs, social media, etc. Choosing the right NFL picks provider is a tricky job but once you find the one, stick with it.
Why You Should Go for NFL Expert Picks
At the beginning of this article, we answered this fundamental question. In short, the benefits of going for NFL picks by experts are numerous and greatly outnumber the disadvantages. Here we will expand on the reasons why you should choose this option over picking for yourself.
It will save you precious time
Only when you start doing your own digging in the endless world of stats, and team and game news reports, you appreciate how much time and effort it takes. You won’t realise it until you notice how 5 or 6 hours have slipped through your fingers while you were gathering and processing all the info you need for just one pick. Making winning NFL predictions is really a full time job if you want to be serious about making money off it.
You will never have access to more advanced stats then them
The experts use the most advanced statistics and data, while most probably you won’t have access to anything better than the average stats available on the web. Nowadays, when the newest technologies seem to renew in hours and not weeks, you can’t compete with people who use the most modern data around. For that reason, the NFL picks by experts are a different breed compared to all others.
Their algorithms and models have passed the test of time
But it’s not a matter only of accessing the most advanced NFL stats – the experts also know how to process all this limitless information. They use or even create themselves special algorithms and models on the basis of which exact NFL predictions are made every single week. On top of that, these algorithms have passed the test of time and have led to huge success rates over the years. This allows the experts to constantly uncover the NFL best bets for the public.
The expert has better news sources
Do you have the required time to follow the news constantly, so that you can rethink your NFL predictions after some important injury in the teams involved? Sometimes even an insignificant (at first sight) report may hide invaluable clues on what direction the game is going to take. That’s why it’s crucial to follow the news stream from both the league and the teams almost 24/7. The experts do that and know exactly what the best sources are to get the needed info for their NFL picks. You probably won’t be able to match that knowledge and dedication because you have a job or/and other different responsibilities in your life.
Emotions won’t ruin your winning bet
Let’s face it: there’s a huge probability that you love football and that means you want a certain team and players to win and others to lose. As a result, when you bet, you may be biased and let your emotions take control. The good news is that the experts will always look at a given game objectively when making their NFL predictions. They will pick on the basis of what will most likely happen, while you will subconsciously do it in accordance with what you want to happen. Making a winning bet requires shutting down any emotion, so choosing NFL expert picks is the right way to go.
NFL Predictions: How Do NFL Expert Picks Work
An NFL expert pick is supplied by: you guessed it… an NFL expert. This can range from ex-players to high-up people at sportsbooks. There will be picks for at least 5-7 NFL games per week depending on where you get them from.
NFL expert picks are constructed by a mix of expert opinion and trusted statistical algorithms. If you find an individual ‘tout’ supplying picks, then they may not necessarily charge. An NFL tout is usually someone who specializes in providing picks and betting information on NFL games. Some also provide picks on other major sporting leagues too, such as the NBA, MLB, and MLS.
Be sure to research your tout before paying for any picks. The tricky part here is that there are fans who will pose as experts and sell their picks to make a quick buck.
There are also NFL picks services. These are corporations that provide subscription-based picks. In the US many sportsbooks are available and with that, there is a lot of betting information available online. Some companies have set packages that are linked directly to their name. Others act as hubs for individual touts to sell their services while also supplying some free NFL picks.
Why Free NFL Picks don’t Necessarily Mean Phony Picks
It is a totally healthy position to be suspicious not only when you are paying for your NFL picks, but also when you find them free of charge. Why would someone who takes so much time and effort into unearthing the NFL best bets deliver his dear discoverings without wanting a dime from you? The answer here is simple. Some individuals or groups with high success rates in their predictions attract enormous interest from the public and, logically, from advertisers too. This is what allows them to offer free NFL picks of the highest quality and your only job is to find them. Once you do, it would be best to stick to them and long term you will make much more winning bets than losing ones.
So in short, the answer is: yes, such things like free NFL expert picks exist. And actually, you are already on a website that delivers them regularly. Check out the best NFL bets this week and start benefiting right away.
When do How To Bet’s NFL Picks Come Out
Now that you know that How To Bet offers completely free NFL picks, the next thing you need to consider is when they come out. Usually, a pick of ours will be published one or two days before the game date. Our team of sports betting journalists will be sharing their expertise and in-depth research, which are based on advanced statistical data and tested algorithms. Check out regularly the NFL expert picks for free on our website and make a winning wager after winning wager.
NFL Picks: Types and Parlays
In the following section, we will expand on what types of NFL Picks are out there.
NFL Picks Against the Spread
NFL picks against the spread (ATS) and especially NFL expert picks against the spread are very popular, maybe even the most popular bets on the market. It is often used in the NBA too, but primarily in football betting. You will see this type of wagering advice heavily present on different shows, blogs, vlogs, podcasts, etc., and it really isn’t surprising once you get a grasp of its importance. There will be a lot of NFL spread picks in the new season, so it’s hugely important to acquaint you with their essence. Something you may find interesting is that the team that covers the spread wins the game outright in about 80% of all cases.
To help get your head around what NFL picks against the spread mean, we’ll take you through an example.
NFL Spread Betting Example
As you can see in this example for NFL picks against the spread, the Packers are favorites to win by 7.5 points, hence the minus number. This means that they are ‘laying’ 7.5 points. For your bet to come in, you must subtract 7.5 from the Packers score at the end of the game and if they still have more than the Chicago Bears, then you will win.
If you bet on the Bears on this particular example for NFL picks ATS, you will need the Bears to not lose by more than 7.5 points. Because they are gaining 7.5 points. So, if the Packers won the game by three points, your bet would come in. Because the Bears are gaining 7.5 points.
The picker that makes NFL predictions against the spread will simply just tell you which side of the spread to bet on. They will do this for every game and expect you to follow along for every matchup. Go and do that if you are convinced that you’ve found the NFL expert picks against the spread that works for you over time.
If you’re paying for picks, it always makes sense to place a lot of wagers. But of course, when using NFL picks, only bet what you can afford to lose. You don’t want to cross the line of having fun and healthy levels of betting. The best option still remains to find free NFL picks against the spread with high success rates and How To Bet offers that through our experts. We will save you precious time and money so that you can invest them in pleasure activities.
NFL Picks Straight Up
NFL picks straight up or NFL moneyline picks are the most basic pick/bet that you’ll ever come across. It is as simple as choosing the winner of the game at hand. Each week, you will see NFL expert picks straight up for each game. If you place a bet on the moneyline, when the team you bet on wins, you win no matter the score. For example:
NFL Moneylines Example
In this example for NFL picks straight up, the Bears are the favorite to win as reflected by their -180 odds. This means that you will make $100 from a $180 wager. The Packers are deemed less likely to win and therefore, in the event that they do come out on top, you would make $250 from a $100 wager. While NFL picks straight up may seem pretty straightforward, they still hide some tricky elements. That’s why you should look for trusted experts in order to escape falling in traps with your betting.
NFL Over/Under Picks
NFL Over/Under picks are formatted in a very similar way to the rest of the NFL picks and predictions. Here though you don’t bet on a winning team and instead predict whether the two teams combined will score over or under the total number of points set by the oddsmakers.The expert will tell you whether to bet over/under on the given game or neither and avoid the bet, if they deem the lines not worthy of a wager.
There are also longer-term NFL over/under picks. You can bet on whether the total number of wins in a season in over or under the line set by the sportsbook. This is an outright bet and will have better odds before the season begins.
The NFL over/under predictions will look something like this:
Greenbay Packers o/u 11.5 wins (+110/-150)
Packers over @ +110
As you can see, on NFL over/under predictions you will see the odds/lines given by the online sportsbook, and below you will see the expert’s pick. They will also supply additional information as to why the bet will come in. This will include things such as:
History of the team
Previous season wins
Free agent signings and trades
Players to watch
NFL Picks and Parlays
Search for NFL picks and parlays will inevitably come up as one of the most lucrative and popular betting types around. This is because of the increased odds that seem more attainable – you stand to win more money by betting less. Different combinations are possible in a parlay bet and the most used are the moneylines, spread and totals. So after you find trustworthy NFL parlay picks, construct your bet by simply adding more wagers to the betting slip and checking the parlay option.
A few sportsbooks now offer same-game parlays. FanDuel was the first to adopt the idea in the US market, with BetMGM and PointsBet following suit. You can head over to either of these sites, select NFL to choose the game you would like to bet on, and select ‘same game parlay’.
Due to the sheer competitiveness of the league, it is more difficult to pull off longer parlays with your NFL predictions. Experts recommend sticking to 2-4 team parlays. This is because you will still see solid odds while having an increased winning probability. It is also worth shopping around for free picks and parlays NFLbest odds. We have some great news for you in this regard. After you have your NFL parlay picks ready, remember that here at How To Bet we offer an all-in-one odds comparison tool, which will take you directly to the best offers. The difference in odds will only ever be marginal, but in parlay betting even the slight differences can make a big difference in terms of profitability. And finally, be disciplined with your bankroll and find your level with odds. This way you will know how many parlays you need to win to break even or profit.
So when you decide what NFL picks and parlays to bet on, make sure you follow the best advice available. Our experts will help you combine successful parlay bets with great variation of selections and superb odds. Don’t sleep on this huge opportunity – in terms of free picks and parlays NFL bets you probably won’t be presented with a better one.
NFL Consensus Picks
NFL consensus picks – also known as NFL public betting picks, are a very solid alternative rather than paying for expert picks and they can help reassure your decision-making when placing a bet. They simply show you what the percentage of bettors chose on lines such as over/under, spreads, and the moneyline.
When looking for NFL consensus picks, expect to see something a little bit like this example:
Chicago Bears @ Green-Bay Packers-
Over 58%: -120
Under 42%: -140
As you can see, you are shown the percentage of bettors who have selected each line. A betting strategy that some follow, is to simply follow the NFL consensus picks. As it is ultimately the public’s pick.
The NFL consensus can also impact odds. Sportsbooks have the ability to raise/lower odds after seeing what the public did with their opening odds. If 75% of people chose over, they would lower that odds. It is crafty, so be sure to watch out for that and check that you are getting the NFL best bets in terms of safety.
NFL Betting Tips
Knowing how to turn the NFL picks you find into consistent winning bets is an art in itself. Being smarter and more disciplined than the rest of the bettors must be your goal and gaining knowledge and experience is crucial. Here are some fundamental NFL betting tips to get you started.
Find the right betting sites – The ones we list on our website are totally legit so each of them is safe, easy to use and offers great odds. Some will provide you with all you want and need from an online sportsbook and when you find them, you will never look back.
Discover the best NFL picks – We already discussed this part, so let’s just remind you How To Bet offers NFL picks from experts with high success rates and does it for free. There is no need to look further.
Wager only on games that offer you an edge – Not every game contains hidden value and you must hold off the temptation to bet on everything that seems attractive as odds. Bet on real value and remember it is rare and hard to find. This will also help you manage your bankroll.
Shop around for the best lines – Start with the opening lines and keep track of the NFL odds as they drift with different sportsbooks. There is a high probability that you will be rewarded.
Don’t mix betting with drinking – A simple rule is to always place your wagers sober, otherwise you will end your sports betting career before you’ve realised it.
Continue when winning and stop when losing – When you are on a roll, don’t stop wagering, as Lady Luck loves continuity. On the other hand, when you lose a bad bet, don’t fall into the trap of wanting to compensate for your losses instantly. Take a deep breath and start doing something completely different. Tomorrow is a new day.
Learn from mistakes – Don’t panic and be compulsive when you’re in a slump with your NFL predictions. Instead, analyse with a cool head where things went wrong. If you do that, chances are you won’t repeat your mistakes and with time you will wager much better and rationally.
NFL Picks Week by Week Index
Check out our NFL predictions provided by proven experts. See their success rates and what lies ahead in the future.
When looking at NFL picks, you will most likely see the date on the left, followed by the teams playing and the odds/lines for each betting type. Below this will be the pick, which will simply say which sides to bet on. Followed by some information.
What are NFL Predictions?
NFL predictions are projections of what the outcome of particular NFL games will be. These are based on algorithms that are formulated by the use of statistics, facts and figures.
How to make winning NFL picks?
The best way to make winning NFL picks and be successful when betting is to do your research!
Check injury updates
Check general team and league news
Before wagering any money, make sure you have the best information possible.
When do ESPN NFL Expert Picks come out?
On Mondays 12.30 AM
Which NFL Expert has the best record for NFL picks?
According to data, the most successful NFL experts are Jamey Eisenberg (66.8% success rate) and Josh Katzowitz (66.5%). Our expert Michael Reynold’s percentage is similar, so make sure you follow his NFL predictions for this week.
Which website should I go to for NFL expert picks?
You are already at the right place! HowToBet.com offers expert weekly NFL picks right here.
What happened to NFL weekly Pick’em?
NFL’s own weekly Pick’em has been discontinued. Other third parties such as ESPN offer a similar game on their website.
About Michael Reynolds
Michael Reynolds has been working in the media for over 20 years. He’s been covering the NFL since 2006 and has been assigned to every single NFL International Series game ever played in London and a number of Super Bowls. Since 2013 he’s been working as a tipster both for NFL and NCAA football.
Was this article helpful?
1 Person has found this article helpful. Your feedback helps us improve our work.
Join Our Tribe
Get all the latest sports news, expert tips and reviews.
HowToBet.com - Sports Betting & USA Online Gambling Guides
We are committed to sharing our expert betting knowledge so you can have a winning chance against the bookie, the house or even naming the winner of the next Dancing with the stars.
HowToBet.com is part of Raketech Group - licensed and operating in PA, NJ, IN, CO, WV, MI, TN, IL, VA. Address: 263 Shuman Blvd Ste. 145, Naperville, IL 60563, United States
Disclaimer: It is your responsibility to check gambling regulations in your jurisdiction. Howtobet.com does not accept responsibility for factual errors that may be evident. The site contains commercial content. This website is not responsible for third-party privacy policies.