When the long-awaited NFL season finally begins, it’s time to start thinking about how to bet on the games and find the NFL picks that work best for you. There are different ways the experts in this field provide their NFL predictions and in this article, we’ll cover all of them. We will also show in detail the betting markets where the specialists are doing their picking for uncovering the NFL best bets for you. And, of course, we will present you with special free NFL picks by our top guns in How To Bet with a really high success rate. First of all though, let’s start with answering probably the most important question in NFL betting: why should you choose NFL expert picks over going it alone?
Unearthing the NFL best bets can be a tough task even for the most experienced bettors. There are a lot of experts out there supplying both free NFL picks and picks behind a pay-wall. Here are some pretty good reasons why you should trust an expert when making your NFL picks this week.
These five reasons should be more than enough to answer this fundamental question. Of course, you must always check the authority of the pickers and trust them after they’ve proved their worth in time. Once they gain your trust, follow their NFL predictions and you will make much more successful bets than unsuccessful ones. If they know what they are doing, rest assured that they will win you plenty of money. And if they don’t charge you for it, all the better! How To Bet is one of these rare sources of free NFL expert picks with high success rates, so check out our new predictions for this week.
Third straight and final (at least for the foreseeable future) primetime appearance for the Seahawks (2-4). And it will be the Geno Smith show once again. The former West Virginia signal-caller looked awful in the first half against the Steelers, woke up after halftime but fumbled in OT to set up the game-winning FG. Expect more of this on Monday night except maybe the first half ineptitude. And expect this to be one of the toughest NFL Week 7 picks.
Saints (3-2) are coming off a bye week but this team is hard to figure out. They blew away the Packers and were blown off the following week by the Panthers. They swept the floor with the Patriots and a week later lost at home to the Giants. And maybe this is normal in their first season post Drew Brees?
There haven’t been any significant injuries this week. And there hasn’t been any significant movement by the line. As if this game is of no interest to anyone. And why should it be? Two teams that are going nowhere, one of them ready to be blown off in the offseason and the other in search of a new franchise QB. This may end up being the worst MNF game of the season. You should look elsewhere for NFL Week 7 picks against the spread but if you feel obliged to bet – the Seahawks are 3-2 ATS. And after all this is probably their last chance to impress America…
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Seahawks +4.5 (-109)
For the second week in a row NBC got a raw deal for Sunday Night Football. Two of the most underachieving teams in the NFL square in Santa Clara with the goal of staying in playoff conversation. According to the DVOA both teams should’ve had at least three wins. But coming off a bye week the Niners (2-3) are on a three-game losing streak with all of those losses being a one-possession. While the Colts (2-4) have won two of the last three although against bottom feeders Miami and Houston.
Jimmy Garoppolo is back at QB for the Niners who used the bye week to get healthier. Although TE George Kittle is ineligible to come off the IR, DT Javon Kinlaw (knee) and T Trent Williams (ankle, elbow) are the only significant names on the injury report although the latter is expected to play on Sunday.
Colts lost S Julian Blackmon for the season with an Achilles injury. RB Jordan Wilkins is on the COVID-list, CBs Xavier Rhodes and Rock Ya-Sin are yet to practice this week and three other starters have been dealing with different ailments as well.
The forecast for Sunday is awful. Rain and howling winds of up to 33 mph could turn this into a havoc and limit the pass game. Running the football is the bread and butter for SF and starting RB Elijah Mitchell is back and healthy. The Niners have not beaten the Colts in 20 years and it’s about time for the streak to end. And the line dropped just enough the last couple of days for this to get among the safest NFL Week 7 picks straight up.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: 49ers Money Line (-200)
At 6-0 the Cardinals are the only undefeated team in the NFL. Win #7 will come on Sunday and nobody will be surprised. But there has been so much money bet on the Cardinals that it may be a good time to try the Betting against the crowd strategy. Get ready to bet against the NFL expert picks Week 7!
For starters: the line has opened at Cardinals -10 and has since moved through two prime wagering numbers - -14 and -17. The double-digit spreads are typical for NCAA and even the worst NFL teams do not deserve such underestimation. Or maybe the Texans do?
Houston is the second-worst scoring offense in the NFL with 15.3 PPG and has scored a mere FG in its last eight quarters on the road. However the Cardinals are 1-1 ATS at home and they covered by a whisker two weeks ago against the 49ers with a rookie QB making his first career start.
The other thing against the Cardinals is the upcoming TNF showdown against the Packers. On Sunday the most important thing is to stay healthy. Maybe they will build and early lead and pull out some starters in the second half which will make the final score closer than it should be?
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Texans +17.5 (-110)
Although it’s only October, Patriots season is on the line this Sunday. At 2-4 they are not only two games back in the AFC East standings but well off the pace in the wild card race. And uncharacteristically the Patriots are 0-4 at home, losing to Miami, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Dallas. The last win in Foxborough came in January against these same Jets who Pats’ fans see as a remedy right now.
Jets (1-5) had a bye week after their London trip. Even with a week off to heal LB C.J. Mosley (hamstring) and TE Kyler Croft (back) are nowhere near being able to practice and are doubtful for Sunday. The entire Patriots’ OL came off the COVID-list and CBs Jonathan Jones (shoulder) and Shaun Wade (concussion) are the only significant names on the injury report.
In Week 2 Pats won 25-6 limiting Jets’ rushing attack and forcing rookie QB Zach Wilson to throw the ball. The BYU product finished with a line 19-of-33 for 210 yards and 4 INTs. With the blueprint for success look for more of the same especially with Jets being dead last not only on offense but in passing as well (21% behind the Bears according to DVOA).
Patriots have won 11 straight against the Jets. Their 12th win in a row should come easy and this looks like an excellent NFL Week 7 picks against spread.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Patriots -6.5 (-118)
As usual in the Matt LaFleur era the Packers are winning in the regular season. What’s happening in the playoffs is another question but there’s no denying they owe NFC North. At 5-1 and on a five-game winning streak the Packers are two games up on the Vikings and the Bears and tied for second in the entire NFC behind the Cardinals whom they travel to next Thursday.
With the big showdown looming many see this as a trap game for the Packers. And the NFL Week 7 predictions are divergent. The Packers lost two of the last three against WFT with the only win being an ugly 20-15 defensive December struggle in 2019. But the 2021 WFT defense is a far cry from that unit. The team is ranked 29th in total defensive DVOA and against the pass. Which should be lethal against Aaron Rodgers.
Packers’ LT David Bakhtiari is back at practice 10 months after suffering an ACL tear. With the injury to his replacement Dennis Kelly, Bakhtiari may be pressed into action early. C Josh Myers (knee) and LB Preston Smith (oblique) are the only other names that have been held out of practice.
WFT OL is in flux with T Samuel Cosmi (ankle) and G Brandon Scherff (knee) being sidelined. For a team that is 21st on offense in DVOA being short in the trenches is never a good sign.
The line opened at Packers -10 but for some reasons the public is in love with the dysfunctional WFT. The heavy betting pushed the spread down to around Packers -7.5 but you can find it at Packers -7 as well.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Packers -7 (-125)
Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off with a game that has a huge potential to be a complete disaster. Broncos started 3-0 but since lost to the Ravens, Steelers, and Raiders with a combined score of 50-84. Browns are sitting at 3-3 just above the bottom of the AFC West standings but the way their last two games unfolded things are not going in the right direction. This game is one of the toughest NFL Week 7 predictions.
First Cleveland gave up four fourth-quarter TDs, losing 42-47 away to the Chargers. On Sunday against a team with no head coach Browns dug themselves in an early 0-20 hole and couldn’t climb back against the Cardinals. However, the problems did not end with the loss.
As of Monday Cleveland has listed 16 players as questionable or worse for Thursday. QB Baker Mayfield suffered for the second time a separated non-throwing arm shoulder. RB Kareem Hunt is heading to the IR with a calf injury. LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is expected to miss at least a month with a high ankle sprain. Three offensive linemen are suffering from knee injuries. RB Nick Chubb missed the Cardinals’ game and his status is unknown. And on, and on, and on…
Broncos meanwhile are running out of LBs. Both starting ILBs, Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson have been lost for the season. Backup Baron Browning is in a concussion protocol and clearing it on a short week looks virtually impossible. For a unit that despite its early success is already outside the Top 10 in most defensive categories, this is a major problem.
The line opened at Cleveland -6 but after Sunday’s carnage quickly dropped to Cleveland -3.5. Baker Mayfield has a tendency to throw a lot of INTs but Denver’s secondary is not known for generating turnovers – just six in six games. If not forced you should look for other NFL Week 7 picks against the spread. Choose the money line instead.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Browns Money Line (-167)
There are thousands and thousands of betting possibilities each week, so making your selected few NFL picks is such hard work. Every bettor can be excused for feeling lost in this ocean of opportunities and not knowing which his next step should be. That’s why many prefer to turn to other people who unearth the hidden gems for them and present them with the NFL best bets.
In terms of who is the provider, there are three main types of NFL betting picks: by ordinary people, computer-generated, and by experts. The first type of picks is made by regular football fans. Those generated by computers are based on advanced stats and provide great value. They lack the human hunch though and that’s where the NFL expert picks to win – they combine the best statistical algorithms and the hunch of the experienced observers. ESPN is an excellent example for trusted picks.
Some of these three types of picks are shared with the public without charge, while others are unfortunately locked behind paywalls. You will find all kinds of NFL predictions on websites with different authorities, on YouTube, in blogs, social media, etc. Choosing the right NFL picks provider is a tricky job but once you find the one, stick with it.
At the beginning of this article, we answered this fundamental question. In short, the benefits of going for NFL picks by experts are numerous and greatly outnumber the disadvantages. Here we will expand on the reasons why you should choose this option over picking for yourself.
Only when you start doing your own digging in the endless world of stats, and team and game news reports, you appreciate how much time and effort it takes. You won’t realise it until you notice how 5 or 6 hours have slipped through your fingers while you were gathering and processing all the info you need for just one pick. Making winning NFL predictions is really a full time job if you want to be serious about making money off it.
The experts use the most advanced statistics and data, while most probably you won’t have access to anything better than the average stats available on the web. Nowadays, when the newest technologies seem to renew in hours and not weeks, you can’t compete with people who use the most modern data around. For that reason, the NFL picks by experts are a different breed compared to all others.
But it’s not a matter only of accessing the most advanced NFL stats – the experts also know how to process all this limitless information. They use or even create themselves special algorithms and models on the basis of which exact NFL predictions are made every single week. On top of that, these algorithms have passed the test of time and have led to huge success rates over the years. This allows the experts to constantly uncover the NFL best bets for the public.
Do you have the required time to follow the news constantly, so that you can rethink your NFL predictions after some important injury in the teams involved? Sometimes even an insignificant (at first sight) report may hide invaluable clues on what direction the game is going to take. That’s why it’s crucial to follow the news stream from both the league and the teams almost 24/7. The experts do that and know exactly what the best sources are to get the needed info for their NFL picks. You probably won’t be able to match that knowledge and dedication because you have a job or/and other different responsibilities in your life.
Let’s face it: there’s a huge probability that you love football and that means you want a certain team and players to win and others to lose. As a result, when you bet, you may be biased and let your emotions take control. The good news is that the experts will always look at a given game objectively when making their NFL predictions. They will pick on the basis of what will most likely happen, while you will subconsciously do it in accordance with what you want to happen. Making a winning bet requires shutting down any emotion, so choosing NFL expert picks is the right way to go.
An NFL expert pick is supplied by: you guessed it… an NFL expert. This can range from ex-players to high-up people at sportsbooks. There will be picks for at least 5-7 NFL games per week depending on where you get them from.
NFL expert picks are constructed by a mix of expert opinion and trusted statistical algorithms. If you find an individual ‘tout’ supplying picks, then they may not necessarily charge. An NFL tout is usually someone who specializes in providing picks and betting information on NFL games. Some also provide picks on other major sporting leagues too, such as the NBA, MLB, and MLS.
Be sure to research your tout before paying for any picks. The tricky part here is that there are fans who will pose as experts and sell their picks to make a quick buck.
There are also NFL picks services. These are corporations that provide subscription-based picks. In the US many sportsbooks are available and with that, there is a lot of betting information available online. Some companies have set packages that are linked directly to their name. Others act as hubs for individual touts to sell their services while also supplying some free NFL picks.
It is a totally healthy position to be suspicious not only when you are paying for your NFL picks, but also when you find them free of charge. Why would someone who takes so much time and effort into unearthing the NFL best bets deliver his dear discoverings without wanting a dime from you? The answer here is simple. Some individuals or groups with high success rates in their predictions attract enormous interest from the public and, logically, from advertisers too. This is what allows them to offer free NFL picks of the highest quality and your only job is to find them. Once you do, it would be best to stick to them and long term you will make much more winning bets than losing ones.
So in short, the answer is: yes, such things like free NFL expert picks exist. And actually, you are already on a website that delivers them regularly. Check out the best NFL bets this week and start benefiting right away.
Now that you know that How To Bet offers completely free NFL picks, the next thing you need to consider is when they come out. Usually, a pick of ours will be published one or two days before the game date. Our team of sports betting journalists will be sharing their expertise and in-depth research, which are based on advanced statistical data and tested algorithms. Check out regularly the NFL expert picks for free on our website and make a winning wager after winning wager.
In the following section, we will expand on what types of NFL Picks are out there.
NFL picks against the spread (ATS) and especially NFL expert picks against the spread are very popular, maybe even the most popular bets on the market. It is often used in the NBA too, but primarily in football betting. You will see this type of wagering advice heavily present on different shows, blogs, vlogs, podcasts, etc., and it really isn’t surprising once you get a grasp of its importance. There will be a lot of NFL spread picks in the new season, so it’s hugely important to acquaint you with their essence. Something you may find interesting is that the team that covers the spread wins the game outright in about 80% of all cases.
To help get your head around what NFL picks against the spread mean, we’ll take you through an example.
As you can see in this example for NFL picks against the spread, the Packers are favorites to win by 7.5 points, hence the minus number. This means that they are ‘laying’ 7.5 points. For your bet to come in, you must subtract 7.5 from the Packers score at the end of the game and if they still have more than the Chicago Bears, then you will win.
If you bet on the Bears on this particular example for NFL picks ATS, you will need the Bears to not lose by more than 7.5 points. Because they are gaining 7.5 points. So, if the Packers won the game by three points, your bet would come in. Because the Bears are gaining 7.5 points.
The picker that makes NFL predictions against the spread will simply just tell you which side of the spread to bet on. They will do this for every game and expect you to follow along for every matchup. Go and do that if you are convinced that you’ve found the NFL expert picks against the spread that works for you over time.
If you’re paying for picks, it always makes sense to place a lot of wagers. But of course, when using NFL picks, only bet what you can afford to lose. You don’t want to cross the line of having fun and healthy levels of betting. The best option still remains to find free NFL picks against the spread with high success rates and How To Bet offers that through our experts. We will save you precious time and money so that you can invest them in pleasure activities.
NFL picks straight up or NFL moneyline picks are the most basic pick/bet that you’ll ever come across. It is as simple as choosing the winner of the game at hand. Each week, you will see NFL expert picks straight up for each game. If you place a bet on the moneyline, when the team you bet on wins, you win no matter the score. For example:
In this example for NFL picks straight up, the Bears are the favorite to win as reflected by their -180 odds. This means that you will make $100 from a $180 wager. The Packers are deemed less likely to win and therefore, in the event that they do come out on top, you would make $250 from a $100 wager. While NFL picks straight up may seem pretty straightforward, they still hide some tricky elements. That’s why you should look for trusted experts in order to escape falling in traps with your betting.
NFL Over/Under picks are formatted in a very similar way to the rest of the NFL picks and predictions. Here though you don’t bet on a winning team and instead predict whether the two teams combined will score over or under the total number of points set by the oddsmakers.The expert will tell you whether to bet over/under on the given game or neither and avoid the bet, if they deem the lines not worthy of a wager.
There are also longer-term NFL over/under picks. You can bet on whether the total number of wins in a season in over or under the line set by the sportsbook. This is an outright bet and will have better odds before the season begins.
The NFL over/under predictions will look something like this:
As you can see, on NFL over/under predictions you will see the odds/lines given by the online sportsbook, and below you will see the expert’s pick. They will also supply additional information as to why the bet will come in. This will include things such as:
Search for NFL picks and parlays will inevitably come up as one of the most lucrative and popular betting types around. This is because of the increased odds that seem more attainable – you stand to win more money by betting less. Different combinations are possible in a parlay bet and the most used are the moneylines, spread and totals. So after you find trustworthy NFL parlay picks, construct your bet by simply adding more wagers to the betting slip and checking the parlay option.
A few sportsbooks now offer same-game parlays. FanDuel was the first to adopt the idea in the US market, with BetMGM and PointsBet following suit. You can head over to either of these sites, select NFL to choose the game you would like to bet on, and select ‘same game parlay’.
Due to the sheer competitiveness of the league, it is more difficult to pull off longer parlays with your NFL predictions. Experts recommend sticking to 2-4 team parlays. This is because you will still see solid odds while having an increased winning probability. It is also worth shopping around for free picks and parlays NFL best odds. We have some great news for you in this regard. After you have your NFL parlay picks ready, remember that here at How To Bet we offer an all-in-one odds comparison tool, which will take you directly to the best offers. The difference in odds will only ever be marginal, but in parlay betting even the slight differences can make a big difference in terms of profitability. And finally, be disciplined with your bankroll and find your level with odds. This way you will know how many parlays you need to win to break even or profit.
So when you decide what NFL picks and parlays to bet on, make sure you follow the best advice available. Our experts will help you combine successful parlay bets with great variation of selections and superb odds. Don’t sleep on this huge opportunity – in terms of free picks and parlays NFL bets you probably won’t be presented with a better one.
NFL consensus picks – also known as NFL public betting picks, are a very solid alternative rather than paying for expert picks and they can help reassure your decision-making when placing a bet. They simply show you what the percentage of bettors chose on lines such as over/under, spreads, and the moneyline.
When looking for NFL consensus picks, expect to see something a little bit like this example:
Chicago Bears @ Green-Bay Packers-
As you can see, you are shown the percentage of bettors who have selected each line. A betting strategy that some follow, is to simply follow the NFL consensus picks. As it is ultimately the public’s pick.
The NFL consensus can also impact odds. Sportsbooks have the ability to raise/lower odds after seeing what the public did with their opening odds. If 75% of people chose over, they would lower that odds. It is crafty, so be sure to watch out for that and check that you are getting the NFL best bets in terms of safety.
Knowing how to turn the NFL picks you find into consistent winning bets is an art in itself. Being smarter and more disciplined than the rest of the bettors must be your goal and gaining knowledge and experience is crucial. Here are some fundamental NFL betting tips to get you started.
Check out our NFL predictions provided by proven experts. See their success rates and what lies ahead in the future.
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When looking at NFL picks, you will most likely see the date on the left, followed by the teams playing and the odds/lines for each betting type. Below this will be the pick, which will simply say which sides to bet on. Followed by some information.
NFL predictions are projections of what the outcome of particular NFL games will be. These are based on algorithms that are formulated by the use of statistics, facts and figures.
The best way to make winning NFL picks and be successful when betting is to do your research!
Before wagering any money, make sure you have the best information possible.
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According to data, the most successful NFL experts are Jamey Eisenberg (66.8% success rate) and Josh Katzowitz (66.5%). Our expert Michael Reynold’s percentage is similar, so make sure you follow his NFL predictions for this week.
You are already at the right place! HowToBet.com offers expert weekly NFL picks right here.
NFL’s own weekly Pick’em has been discontinued. Other third parties such as ESPN offer a similar game on their website.
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