October is approaching and this means the time has come to make your NFL Week 4 picks. Online sportsbooks across the US are offering generous odds for all kinds of wagers – from moneylines, point spreads, and totals to in-play and prop bets. We at How To Bet are here to help you with guidance through this vast ocean of opportunities with the hottest NFL Week 4 predictions by our expert team. It’s a challenging task to do your own research for every game until you discover the golden nuggets, so stick with us. The success rates of our NFL Picks prove unequivocally that you should.
On this page, you will also see the betting odds and lines for this week’s fixtures. From Thursday till Monday night we’ll find out who will become part of the 4-0 club and who will stay winless. The excitement is taking over but our cool-headed expert approach will help you benefit from the best NFL bets Week 4 can offer. Our picks are already served, leading the way towards your next portion of winning bets.
Week 4 concludes with an AFC West showdown that, depending on the Broncos game, may shake things at the top of the division. Raiders are unbeaten at 3-0 while the Chargers won their first divisional game of the season upsetting the Chiefs 30-24 at Arrowhead last Sunday.
This is a match-up dominated by the Raiders in recent years, including a 31-26 decision in front of an empty stadium in LA last year. But back then Justin Herbert was just another rookie QB with no experience. The former Oregon Ducks playmaker is entering the week with 6 TDs and 3 INTs this season and coming off probably his career game. Herbert finished 26-of-38 for 281 yards, 4 TDs, and a 125.0 rating against the two-time defending AFC champions.
Raiders needed OT to stave off the Dolphins, winning 31-28 with a last-second FG to remain perfect. They got some good news on the injury front as RB Josh Jacobs (ankle) was finally able to practice although in a limited capacity. But the secondary remains a question with CB Trayvon Mullen (shoulder) and S Roderick Teamer (ankle) both unclear in terms of health status.
WR Keenan Allen (ankle) is a question mark for the Chargers. LB Joey Bosa (foot, ankle) has practiced twice this week already and should be good to go but CB Chris Harris Jr. (shoulder) is limited.
The Raiders are among the most pleasant surprises of the season but they rode the luck too often to begin the season. There are not many good NFL Week 4 picks straight up but I suggest this one.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Chargers Money Line (-164)
In terms of ratings, this should be the Game of the year. Tom Brady back to Foxborough but not in blue and white is a must-see TV. Although both teams struggled last week (Patriots lost at home for the second consecutive time this season while the Buccaneers were shut out by the LA Rams for nearly 26 minutes losing in the end 34-17) the grudge match between Brady and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will be enormous.
Let’s start on the injury front. The Buccaneers lost RB Giovani Bernard (knee) and CB Jamel Dean (knee) while TE Rob Gronkowski is doubtful in his return to Foxborough. The Patriots put RB James White (hip) on the IR and have most of the offensive line, K Nick Folk, and all starting LBs listed as questionable. This may very well be one of those mind games of Belichick who will kill to beat the QB that led the Patriots to six Super Bowl titles.
With a rookie QB Mac Jones at the helm the Patriots predictably struggle on offense so far in 2021. They are ranked sixth from the bottom in PPG (18.0), 22nd in YPG (337.3), and 24th in rushing YPG (91.7). Advanced metrics are not kind to the Patriots as well, ranking them as low as 26th.
Unsurprisingly the Buccaneers are one of the best in the league on offense (tied for first in PPG, second in pass YPG, 5th in DVOA) but their defense so far proved absolutely incapable of stopping anybody giving up 88 points, giving up 402.0 YPG and league-most 338.3 pass YPG. To bolster their depleted secondary the Super Bowl LV champions signed veteran CB Richard Sherman but what impact he will have is yet to be seen.
This is the most heavily betted game this week with almost all the money backing up the Buccaneers with the line opening up at -5.5 and climbing to -7. In similar circumstances in Week 1 being a 9-points favorite against the Cowboys they squeaked by two so I will back the Patriots despite not being convinced in their offense. Even if this may contradict with the majority of NFL expert picks Week 4.
Buccaneers @Patriots NFL Week 4 Prediction: Patriots +7 (-109)
Vikings are 1-2 yet they could’ve easily been 3-0 if not for two late FGs – one made against them and one missed by them. Browns are 2-1 and if not for a fourth-quarter collapse against the Chiefs could’ve been 3-0. The common point for the two “could’ve been”? They both score points in bunches. And they also hit the over twice already.
Vikings have hit the over twice and were a possession away from hitting it for the third time last week against the Seahawks. The Purple Gang is 8th in PPG (29.0) on offense and 9th in advanced metrics. Browns are 9th in PPG scoring (28.7) but are ranked as high as 4th in DVOA.
Both teams are relatively healthy. The Vikings listed seldom used WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette out with a turf toe with RB Dalvin Cook questionable (ankle) but expected to play. Browns will be without rookie CB Greg Newsome II (calf) and T Christopher Hubbard (triceps).
There’s not much movement of the spread and total lines so basically – this is not among the most attractive NFL picks Week 4. But with two defenses struggling against the pass (both in the bottom half in the advanced metrics) I’ll take the over.
Browns @ Vikings NFL Week 4 Prediction: Over 51.5 (-110)
At 2-1, the Titans are atop probably the worst divisions (AFC South) while the Jets predictably struggled with a rookie QB and are still winless. The matchup is neither sexy nor exciting. It’s one of the least popular NFL expert's picks in Week 4. Yet there’s something glaring looking at both teams.
The Jets are incredibly inept on offense with just 20 points scored in three games including a shutout at the hands of the Broncos last week. The Titans are middle of the road in terms of PPG (15th with 23.7) but the advanced metrics are not very kind to them. Tennessee is ranked only 23rd in DVOA and despite RB Derrick Henry leading the league in rushing (117.7 YPG) they sit only 17th in DVOA. In other words – they run a lot but are not that effective.
This week the Titans took a massive hit with their passing game. Both starting WRs (A. J. Smith and Julio Jones) were ruled out. Which will probably force Henry to put the team on his back and carry it. Jets’ receiving corps also got thin with WR Elijah Moore (concussion) and WR Jeff Smith (concussion) both ruled out. WR Jamison Crowder (groin) is questionable alongside TE Kyler Kroft (rib) and RB La’Mical Perine (illness).
Jets’ matches featured three unders in a row. The Titans have two of them so far this season. Until proven wrong the suggestion is to go with the flow.
Titans @ Jets NFL Week 4 Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)
Playing in one of the worst NFL divisions (NFC East) the Giants are winless although the point differential is just -18. Playing in one of the toughest, at least so far, divisions (NFC South) the Saints are 2-1 despite this being their first true home game. Because of Hurricane Ida they played in Jacksonville in Week 1 before hitting the road for the next two weeks.
The Saints are a strangely unbalanced team. According to the advanced metrics their defense is elite (3rd) while their offense is ranked 19th which is actually lower than the Giants. But do not let the stats fool you –the G-Men are a team that is neither good in running (17th) nor in passing (19th).
On Sunday Giants WRs (Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton) are both out. They are the leading and third-leading pass catchers and good luck to QB Daniel Jones finding somebody who can actually catch the ball. G Ben Bredeson will also miss the game with a hand injury. For the Saints T Terron Armstead (out with an elbow injury) is the new addition to the injury report while starting centre Erik McCoy will miss his third consecutive game.
It’s not quite like the Saints homecoming in 2006 after the Hurricane Katrina devastation but it will be the first home game with fans at the Superdome in almost two years. The atmosphere will be electric and with the historical home field advantage of the Superdome this may very well turn into a bloodbath for the Giants.
Giants @Saints NFL Week 4 Prediction: Saints -7 (-110)
Week 4 Thursday Night Football offers a potential glimpse of the future as the last two top picks in the draft face each other. But while Joe Burrow thrives for the 2-1 Bengals less than a year after tearing ACL and MCL in his left knee, Trevor Lawrence has thrown 7 INTs to 5 TDs for the 0-3 Jaguars who are still searching for their first win in more than 12 months.
After the convincing 24-10 win away to the Steelers, Cincinnati rose to 11th in the DVOA standings thanks mainly to their defense. The Bengals are ranked 4th on overall defense and second against the run behind only Carolina. And the Thursday matchup looks very favorable as the Jaguars are among the worst offenses in the NFL. The perennial AFC South bottom feeders sit at #30 according to the advanced metrics as their pass attack is third-worst in the league.
This has all the definitions of a trap game for the Bengals. Sandwiched between the visit in Pittsburgh and the home showdown vs. the Packers, Burrow &Co. may let the guard down a bit. If not being in primetime this would’ve not been among NFL Week 4 picks. Moreover, seven names popped on the initial injury report including star safety Jessie Bates (neck issue). T Riley Reiff (ankle) and G Xavier Su’a-Filo (knee) are also questionable. Jaguars are banged up as well with T Cam Robinson and G Andrew Norwell’s status is up in the air. But their injury list is not as full as the Bengals’.
The X-Factor on Thursday should be Jaguars’ head coach Urban Meyer’s familiarity with QB Joe Burrow. Meyer recruited him to Ohio State but as he went into his second retirement, Burrow transferred to LSU and became a Heisman Trophy winner and an NCAA national champion in 2019.
It’s still early to show confidence in the Bengals and I won’t rank them as one of the easier NFL Week 4 predictions. The line opened at Bengals -6 but moved up by 1.5 points in just a day. The Bengals won by eight (30-22) exactly a year ago but the Jaguars’ losing streak sooner or later will come to an end. None of their previous three games ended within one score but maybe it’s time?
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Jaguars +7.5 (-109)
NFL Expert Picks Week 4 are selected betting picks by individuals with a particularly high level of NFL knowledge and experience. The name itself indicates that these picks are provided for the fourth week of the league season. They will give you detailed suggestions on how to bet on the games that give you the highest winning chance for a wager.
Quite a few bettors still tend to make their own NFL Week 4 predictions, yet more and more people are turning to expert picks. They are considered by many to be the art form of NFL betting. Here are the main reasons to choose NFL Week 4 Picks provided by specialists:
There is a great variety of betting markets when you come to wager on the chosen NFL Week 4 predictions, whether you use expert picks or your own. The three most popular among football betting fans are:
Because of their huge popularity, you will find these three markets at every online sportsbook worth their salt. We will take a quick look at each one in turn. This way you will understand how they work before you begin exploring the best NFL bets Week 4 can offer.
The straight-up or moneyline betting market is perhaps the simplest to understand. Here you will be offered odds about both of the teams involved in a particular NFL game and your only job is to bet on the team that you think will win. If your prediction is correct, your bet is a winning one and it will be settled at the odds you took. In short, when you are seeing our NFL Week 4 picks straight up, you should be able to bet on them easily. Take a look at the following example:
|Kansas City Chiefs||-290|
So if in your NFL Week 4 predictions straight up you fancy Kansas to win the NFL game against Philadelphia, you could bet on the Chiefs at odds of -290. A stake of $290 would therefore give you a profit of $100 if they succeed. On the other hand, if you bet $100 on Philadelphia and they win the game, your profit would be $230. This is as straightforward an example as you would find, so now you should be ready to take advantage of our NFL Week 4 picks straight up.
As you will have seen from the NFL moneyline example, the odds for the two teams in a NFL game can be quite different. By trying to even up those odds, all sportsbooks offer point spread markets that impose an artificial handicap on the favorite team. The spreads give the underdog team an equal and opposing advantage, and consequently the odds available tend to be much more balanced. As a result, the NFL Week 4 spread picks are in such demand. Consider this example:
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-6.5||-110|
|New England Patriots||+6.5||-110|
In this example for NFL Week 4 picks against the spread, you see Tampa Bay being given a handicap of -6.5 points, while New England has an advantage of +6.5 points. If you put a bet on Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers will need to win by 7 points or more for you to succeed. Bet on New England and that wager will only lose if the Patriots lose by 7 points or more. With these conditions in place, the sportsbook is able to offer the same odds of -110 about both teams.
You can be sure that when you are using expert predictions, you will be given NFL Week 4 picks against the spread. Just wager on the named team in the point spread market and if the expert pick is correct, you’ll have your winning bet served on a plate.
The over/under betting is the third main betting market for NFL Week 4 picks. Here you don't wager on the winner of the NFL game. Your only job is to predict whether the total number of points scored in the game by both teams combined will be Over or Under a total figure quoted by the sportsbook. Unsurprisingly, this is the reason why this is also known as the Totals market. Have a look at the following example to understand the concept better:
The over/under betting is just as simple as moneyline betting, especially if you have NFL expert picks Week 4 to help guide you. In this type of wagering all you have to do is decide whether you think there will be over or under 47.5 points scored in the game by both teams combined. If you go for Over, there would need to be 48 points or more for your wager to succeed. Go for Under and there would need to be 47 points or fewer for your bet to win. Take a look at our NFL Week 4 predictions, find the best over/under bets available, and put a wager.
Check out the success rate of the NFL predictions provided by our experts and see what lies ahead in the future.
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There are many places where you can find NFL expert picks Week 4, but not all experts are equal, and most will charge you money to receive their picks. The NFL Week 4 picks here at How To Bet are provided by some of the best specialists we’ve found and, furthermore, completely free of charge.
Our NFL Week 4 picks are expert predictions based on solid data and analysis, but they are still only predictions. There is no guarantee that NFL picks from any source will win, and form upsets can occur at any point during the season.
The only guarantee is that the expert picks have a much higher chance of winning because of the amount of work, knowledge, experience and advanced data access these specialists have. So always obey the golden rule of betting and never bet more than you can afford to lose in a worst-case scenario.
All three of the betting markets discussed have their pros and cons, so which one you choose for the best NFL bets Week 4 will depend on your own preferences. If you simply want to bet on the winning team, the moneyline is the best choice. The point spread market is good for those who also want to bet on how close the game will be. Our NFL Week 4 picks against the spread will be a huge help for you so don’t hesitate to use them in your favour. And the over/under market is ideal for those who don’t want to bet on a specific winner. Of course, you can also bet in two or all three of those markets if you’d prefer to do that.
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