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Who to Bet On For Kentucky Derby

So now you have been introduced to the history of the Run for the Roses, how the horses get there, how to set up an online account and wager on the race, and the different bets available for the Kentucky Derby.

Now all you have to do is pick the winner, right? Here are a few things to ponder for your online Kentucky Derby betting.

Kentucky Derby Favorites

In a large and competitive field you would think the betting favorite would be up against it, but the Kentucky Derby betting favorite actually won six straight years from 2013 to 2018. In the last 22 years the betting favorite has seen the inside of the winner’s circle 10 times. However, from 1980 to 1999 the favorite came up short 20 years in a row.

Since Churchill Downs went from graded stakes earnings to a points system, the races have been run truer to form. In addition, the betting public may be getting more astute as well with more access to replays, speed figures and statistics.

Despite the favorite wining six years in a row, the average exacta payoff during that span came in at $305.33.

Long Shots in the Kentucky Derby

Despite favorites having a good run over the last two decades, don’t discount the occasional bomb, it is going to happen from time to time.

In 2004 Giacomo pulled off the big upset and returned $102.60 and just four years later Mine That Bird came flying up the rail to pull off an upset and return his backers $103.20. In 2019 Maximum Security was disqualified for interference and Country House was elevated to the winner, paying a hefty $132.40.

Key Kentucky Derby Prep Races

The vast majority of Kentucky Derby winners are in action putting in their final prep race usually 21 to 35 days before the first Saturday of May.

The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park has been the most productive prep race, with 24 exiting the race to go on and wear Roses. And they usually win their final prep. The last seven Kentucky Derby winners that came out of the Florida Derby won that final prep race.

In fact, if we include Maximum Security (who crossed the wire first but was disqualified), the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners won their final prep race.

The Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland has produced the second most Kentucky Derby winners at 23 but has not been much of a factor over the last three decades. We have to go back to Strike the Gold in 1991 to find the last Derby winner to prep in the Blue Grass.

Other key final preps are the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct which has produced 20 Derby winners and the Santa Anita Derby which has produced 20 including the 2021 winner Medina Spirit.

Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners

Year	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Price	Final Prep
2021	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	John Velazquez	$26.20	Santa Anita Derby (Won)
2020	Authentic	Bob Baffert	John Velazquez	$18.80	Haskell Inv. (Won)
2019	Country House	Bill Mott	Flavien Prat	$132.40	Arkansas Derby (3^rd)
2018	Justify	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	$7.80	Santa Anita Derby (Won)
2017	Always Dreaming	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	$11.40	Florida Derby (Won)
2016	Nyquist	Doug O’Neill	Mario Gutierrez	$6.60	Florida Derby (Won)
2015	American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza	$7.80	Arkansas Derby (Won)
2014	California Chrome	Art Sherman	Victor Espinoza	$7.00	Santa Anita Derby (Won)
2013	Orb	Shug McGaughey	Joel Rosario	$12.80	Florida Derby (Won)
2012	I’ll Have Another	Doug O’Neill	Mario Gutierrez	$32.60	Santa Anta Derby (Won)

Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners

Key Kentucky Derby Trainers

Look no further than trainer Bob Baffert who has won the Kentucky Derby a record seven times although Medina Spirit could end up getting disqualified. Baffert has started 34 horses in the race and along with his seven winners he has run second three times and third three times.

Todd Pletcher has started more horses in the Kentucky Derby than any other trainer in history with 59 starters. Newly inducted to the Hall of Fame, Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby just twice, with Always Dreaming in 2017 and Super Saver in 2010.

D. Wayne Lukas, who is still training at the age of 85, has saddled four Kentucky Derby winners, the last being Charismatic in 1999.

The only other active trainers with more than one win are Nick Zito and Doug O’Neill with two each.

Steve Asmussen, a two-time Eclipse Award winner for outstanding trainer has the most Kentucky Derby starters without a victory, currently 0 for 23.

Top Kentucky Derby Jockeys

Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez has won the last two editions of the Kentucky Derby aboard the Baffert trained Authentic in 2020 and Medina Spirit in 2021. He won his first Kentucky Derby aboard the Graham Motion trained Animal Kingdom in 2011 and booted home Always Dreaming in 2017 for Pletcher.

Kent Desormeaux is coming toward the end of his Hall of Fame career and has three wins, his most recent with Big Brown in 2008. Mike Smith won aboard Giacomo and Justify, the latter going on to win the Triple Crown.

Victor Espinoza won in back to back years in 2014 aboard California Chrome and American Pharoah in 2015. Mario Gutierrez rode both of Doug O’Neill’s winners, I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016.

Javier Castellano is the most overdue jockey still looking for his first Kentucky Derby ride. Four times the Eclipse Award winner for outstanding jockey, he is 0 for 15 in the Run for the Roses.

Irad Ortiz Jr. has won the Eclipse Award each of the last three years but is 0 for 5 in the Derby. His brother Jose, the Eclipse Award winner in 2017 is 0 for 6. They both seem highly likely to eventually win the race.

Post Positions in the Kentucky Derby

We hear a lot about the “dreaded one post” before the Kentucky Derby post position draw each year and breaking from the inside can be a disadvantage. No Kentucky Derby winner has come out of the one stall since Ferdinand in 1986.

The best posts are the 5 which has produced 10 Derby winners and the 10 post which has produced nine winners.

Posts 17 and outward were at a disadvantage in previous years, with just four winners from 126 starters. However, several of those wins were recent. Big Brown broke out of the 20 post in 2008, I’ll Have Another out of the 19 in 2012 and Country House out of the 18 post in 2019.

Last year saw Churchill Downs purchase a new starting gate that holds 20 horses. Previously they had an auxiliary gate for the outside posts and there was a small gap between the two gates and the outside gate was at a slight angle.

Moving forward if you like a horse that has an outside draw, I would not hold that against them. The “dreaded one post?” Unless the horse had early speed, it will not do your pick any favors to break from the rail.

Kentucky Derby Winning Running Styles

Going 1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday of May is a stamina test and it was difficult to take the field gate to wire. Perhaps not so much anymore.

When graded stakes were used to create the field, there were usually one or two sprint types that managed to get into the field, assuring a fast early pace that tended to favor horses that were stalking or closing.

In recent years the early pace has been more moderate, and we have seen on the lead types fare quite well.

War Emblem wired the field in 2002, the first to do so since the filly Winning Colors in 1998.

However, things changed in 2019 as Maximum Security set the early fractions and held on to win by 1 ¾ lengths. But after a 22-minute stewards’ inquiry, he was disqualified for causing interference at the top of the stretch.

In 2020 the Kentucky Derby was postponed because of the pandemic and run in October. Authentic was able lead from start to finish, returning $18.80 for the win. And last year Medina Spirit broke alertly, was sent to the lead and battled on gamely in the stretch to win by a half-length, paying $26.20.

So what does the future hold when it comes to running style? You should lean toward horses that like to be up front or in a stalking position where they could get to the lead by the top of the stretch. It is tough for deep closers to work their way through a large field.

The Kentucky Derby Winning Profile

Over the past couple of decades we have seen Kentucky Derby winners prep less and have more space between their races, but we still have a reasonable idea of what a winning profile for the Kentucky Derby winner looks like.

Ideally the horse has at last one start as a juvenile. Justify was the first Kentucky Derby winner to not have a start as a two-year-old since Apollo in 1882.

Heading into the Kentucky Derby they should have at least three starts under their belt, preferably four or five. Their last prep should be between 21 and 35 days prior to the Kentucky Derby.

It should be in a graded stake, and they should have a sharp final prep race. Don’t forget the last 11 to cross the wire first in the Kentucky Derby won their final prep. The last to lose was Super Saver in 2010 and he lost by just a neck in the Arkansas Derby.

There is nothing better when playing the ponies than making a score in the Kentucky Derby, which indeed will make it your two most exciting minutes in sports.

Photo Credit

ANDY LYONS / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP