NFL Picks Week 1 for a Winning Start at Betting

Check the Hottest NFL Week 1 Predictions by Our Expert Team

What is the first thing that we always tell you on the How To Bet podcast?

Bet with your head, not with your heart.

Yes, there are 16 games on the opening weekend of the National Football League season (and about 50 more NCAA contests), and I, as your resident “Genius”, am always going to do my best to break down every NFL game each week for you, the bettors trying to bash the bookies.

But just because I have an opinion on each game, does not mean I have EXTREME confidence that a certain outcome will happen. Just like you, I have a very good feel for some games, a decent feel for others, and absolutely no feel (other than what my brain and eyes are telling me) on a certain number each week.

I do a confidence pool each week, where we pick each game and order them from 16 to 1, and get that number of points if your game wins in that slot. It is pretty cool, so I decided this year to give you out there in How To Bet land a look into that process.

Each week, I will go through the games, and give them to you in order of my confidence in whatever I pick for that contest. Maybe it is a team total, an over on the game, a money line, or a spread: whatever it is, I will figure out SOMETHING from each game I think you can win with, and give it to you.

Do I think you should wager on EVERY pick I give? Look, you do you, but as we always say, bet within your means.


(All confidence level numbers are out of 16, not only because there are 16 games when there are no byes, but also because it is the first Erdös-Woods number)

Thu, Sept. 8 

Bills at Rams (-1); Bills -110, Rams -110; O/U 52 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Bills team total over

We are still waiting to see what the actual number is going to be, but if you can get a good price on Buffalo anywhere above 27 points, grab it and run. 

Confidence Level: 11

Sunday, Sept 11 1 p.m. EDT games

49ers (-6.5) at Bears; 49ers -275, Bears +220; O/U 42.5 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Bears team total under

Chicago scored more than 20 points in only seven of 17 games, and amazingly, lost four of those as well. San Fran might not light it up (it could, though), but the 49ers are going to shut down this team.

Confidence Level: 9

Jaguars at Commanders (-4); Jaguars +160, Commanders -190; O/U 44.5 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Washington -4

Look, both teams probably will stink, but the Commanders might stink less, especially if Carson Wentz can do anything under center. Trevor Lawrence needs help, and this is a tough spot for him with the Washington defense probably back to full strength.

Confidence Level: 6

Steelers at Bengals (-6.5); Steelers +200, Bengals -250; O/U 45 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Bengals team total over

Cincinnati is going to score a lot of points this season, but will the Super Bowl loser’s hangover affect this team? Maybe not on offense, with Joe Cool under center.

Confidence Level: 8

Saints (-3.5) at Falcons; Saints -180, Falcons +155; O/U 42 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Saints -3

If (IF) Jameis Winston is back to normal, I think the Saints could be in the playoff hunt. If he is not, New Orleans could struggle. But I think they are better than the Falcons, who should be tanking for CJ Stroud.

Confidence Level: 5

Browns (-1) at Panthers; Browns -120, Panthers +100; O/U 42 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: No play until you see if Watson is suspended

If Watson plays, I love the Browns here, even with the Baker Mayfield revenge storyline. If he does not play, I love Mayfield and the Panthers.

Confidence Level: 1

Ravens (-4.5) at Jets; Ravens -195, Jets +165; O/U 45 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Ravens -4.5

Baltimore was headed towards a big year in 2021 before injuries derailed the Ravens at 8-3. If they are healthy, this team is going to win the AFC North. Everyone is excited about the Jets, but is Zach Wilson any good?

Confidence Level: 13

Eagles (-4) at Lions; Eagles -190, Lions +160; O/U 46.5 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Eagles -3 (slide the line down)

As I am around the Philly area, I have started buying into the hype around this team. Avid How To Bet watchers and readers will know I loved them last year on the team total over, and I think that is on again in 2022.

Confidence Level: 12

Patriots at Dolphins (-3); Patriots +135, Dolphins -155; O/U 45 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: No idea, but I will say Dolphins -2.5 (bet it down)

I have no idea who wins this game, but Miami could be dangerous with the new weapons on offense. You know Coach Bill will have his team ready to go, but are they any good?

Confidence Level: 2

Colts (-7.5) at Texans; Colts -380, Texans +290; O/U 44.5 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Colts -7 (bet it down)

How will the late season collapse affect the Colts? Will Matt Ryan be any good for this team? Does he have to be with Jonathan Taylor running the ball?

Houston stinks, and should be tanking for CJ Stroud.

Confidence Level: 7

Sunday, Sept 11 4:05/4:25 p.m. EDT games

Giants at Titans (-6.5); Giants +235, Titans -300; O/U 44 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Titans -6.5, and you can bet it up to -9.5 for more value

Were you wondering where the 16 was going to go? Of course you were. I don’t get the line at all: many people think the Giants are going to be much better. Did Daniel Jones just turn into Tom Brady?

Tennessee was banged up last year and STILL got the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Derrick Henry is going to have a field day here.

Confidence Level: 16

Packers (-1.5) at Vikings; Packers -120, Vikings +100; O/U 49 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Packers -1.5

Did Aaron Rodgers retire? Why is this line so close to a pick? I don’t get it.

Confidence Level: 4

Raiders at Chargers (-4); Raiders +155, Chargers -180; O/U 52 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: over 52 points

This game is going to see a lot of points from both teams, and I think you can probably play the team totals as well. I have no idea who wins it.

Confidence Level: 3

Chiefs (-3) at Cardinals; Chiefs -150, Cardinals +130; O/U 53 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Kansas City -2.5 (bet it down)

I think this is going to be an inflection point game, and season, for both franchises. Kansas City has been to four AFC title games in a row, and has won just one Super Bowl. That is really not good enough with the talent on this team. Arizona’s window might have already closed.

Confidence Level: 10

Sunday, Sept 11 8:20 p.m. EDT game

Buccaneers (-2.5) at Cowboys; Buccaneers -135, Cowboys +115; O/U 51.5 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Bucs -2.5

You think Tom Brady came out of retirement to lose opening night on primetime TV? NO CHANCE!

Tampa Bay is going to have a MONSTER season if everyone stays healthy, which was an issue last season. I am not as high on this Dallas team as others are.

Confidence Level: 14

Mon, Sept. 12 8:30 pm. EDT game

Broncos (-4) at Seahawks; Broncos -190, Seahawks +160; O/U 41 – NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

The Play: Broncos -4

I do not understand the line here. Russell Wilson is the quarterback the Broncos have DESPERATELY needed for three years to go with a top five defense. Who is playing QB for the Seahawks, Drew Lock?

Confidence Level: 15

NFL Picks & Predictions Week by Week Index

Check out the success rate of the NFL predictions provided by our experts and see what lies ahead in the future.

NFL Picks Week 1 FAQ

What expert NFL Picks are?
These are the expert’s betting choices for a NFL game and are based on hours and hours of research. You can either choose to follow these predictions or trust your own judgement.
Where can I find expert picks Week 1 NFL?
There are many places where you can find expert picks Week 1 NFL. Not all experts are equal though, and most will charge you money to receive their picks. The NFL Picks Week 1 here at How To Bet are provided by some of the best specialists we've found and, this is the icing on the cake, completely free of charge.
How to make winning NFL Picks in week 1?
In order to benefit from the best NFL bets Week 1 can offer, you need to do lots of research. You must check stats, injury lists, coach changes and anything that could affect the game. Most of all, you need to be able to analyse this information properly and also to read the game before all the action unfolds. You can also follow expert NFL picks from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl. And it’s completely free of charge here at How To Bet!
Which NFL expert has the best record for NFL Picks?
ESPN and CBS are regarded as the top of the pops for NFL picks among the big media outlets. But don’t hesitate to check How To Bet’s picks too. We have a great winning percentage that equals and many times even betters the success rates of the most popular experts..
Is there a guarantee that all NFL Picks Week 1 provided by experts are winners?
Our NFL picks Week 1 are expert predictions based on solid data and analysis, but they are still only predictions. There is no guarantee that NFL picks from any source will win, and form upsets can occur at any point during the season. The only guarantee is that the expert picks have a much higher chance of winning because of the amount of work, knowledge, experience and advanced data access these specialists have. So always obey the golden rule of betting and never bet more than you can afford to lose in a worst-case scenario.
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