The time to separate the men from the boys is fastly approaching and our Week 11 NFL picks are here to help you to win your bets in this crucial part of the regular season. Most of the teams badly need wins to position themselves in the playoffs and this means only one thing: that a bestial fight for every inch is coming. In this complex situation How To Bet has all the tools to orientate you. Our expert team uses advanced data, explores relevant trends, and takes into account the latest and most important team news in order to forecast all matchups. These objective approaches are then combined with their innate hunch for the game to bring forth our selected NFL Week 11 predictions. And it’s all for free!
There really isn’t any justifiable reason not to go with our NFL Picks. Quit wasting precious hours doing your own research for each game and looking around for the most appealing odds. Cease staying glued to the screen waiting for any breaking news that could potentially endanger your bet. And leave behind the fear that your team loyalty will blur your vision. Just take a couple of minutes to read our experts’ free predictions and place a wager. They’ve already done the job for you and unearthed the hidden value on the odds market, offering you the NFL Week 11 best bets on a plate.
On this page, you will also see the odds movement and the complete schedule of games with some quick picks after the selected ones. Let’s get straight to winning!
In the midst of a two-game losing streak and waiting for the result of the league investigation of the Antonio Brown face vaccination card (is anybody really surprised that he’s in trouble again?) the defending Super Bowl champions are looking to make ground on Green Bay and Arizona in pursuit of the top seed in the NFC playoffs. A week ago the Bucs were stunned 29-19 by WFT after two more Tom Brady interceptions that brought his total to seven for the season. And the last of our NFL Week 11 predictions got harder.
Tampa Bay were coming off a bye week but their preparations took a turn for worse when during the warm-up CB Richard Sherman reinjured his calf and left the team shorthanded in secondary. But to expect, of all people in the world, QB Taylor Heinicke to take advantage and post an 81% completion rate and a 110.4 rating?
Bucs’ injury report is not finalized but Antonio Brown is listed as “non-participant” during the whole week after already missing three straight games with an ankle injury. DT Vita Vea has also missed all practices recovering from a knee injury while LB Jason Pierre-Paul reportedly left early on Friday after experiencing back pain.
At 3-6 the Giants are last in the NFC East but won two of the last three games finally showing signs of life. The bye week gave the G-Men a chance to heal and this might be the first time this season for QB Daniel Jones to have all his offensive weapons on disposal. RB Saquon Barkley is back, although still in limited fashion, and his presence will be welcomed against a team that is ranked fourth against the run by the DVOA.
Tampa Bay won 25-23 a year ago and should face little trouble doing it again on Monday. Initially I was thinking about betting the over but the line quickly climbed to 49.5 and even broke the 50 points barrier. So instead although a little uncomfortable, I’ll make this one of my NFL Week 11 picks against the spread. And hope G-Men will continue with the trend of covering. The line is hovering around 11.5 – 12 but you can find good prices for Giants +13 as well.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Giants +13 (-133)
Hanging on the last two AFC Wild Card spots, LA and Pittsburgh square off in a Sunday Night Football edition NBC may end up regret picking up. The 5-4 Chargers have won just once after the promising start of the season. While the Steelers tied with the Lions after rookie TE Pat Freiermuth coughed the ball in field goal range in the last minute of overtime. Picking a winner here is the toughest NFL Week 11 predictions.
Both teams are dealing with a lot of uncertainties. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is on the COVID list and as of today Mason Rudolph is listed as a starter. S Minkah Fitzpatrick is also on the COVID list and is all practically out for sunday. Star LB T.J. Watt is dealing with hip and leg injuries and without him Pittsburgh has only three true LBs with 14.5 combined sacks between them.
Chargers placed DT Jerry Tillery on the COVID list after a positive test. DE Joey Bosa joined him as a close contact and as he’s unvaccinated he has to stay there at least through Saturday putting him in danger of missing out SNF. And three of their safeties haven’t practiced this week with the fourth (Nasir Adderley) listed as limited.
Despite making some progress, the Chargers run defense is still last in the league in DVOA. They’ve allowed 4.1 yards per carry after the bye week (down from 5.6 before that) but will have to face now RB Najee Harris who is sixth in the league in rushing.
Vegas gave the Chargers almost a full TD advantage. A spread, they’ve covered just once this season. And with the Steelers on a streak of five games decided by one possession you can bet them keeping this one close until the end.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Steelers +6.5 (-118)
Two teams that scored 10 points combined a week ago. Two teams with starting QBs dealing with injuries. Two teams that are projected to play on a soggy field on a rainy old Sunday afternoon. How can you not include this into your NFL Week 11 picks?
The Seahawks were shut out by the Packers in Russell Wilson’s return from injury. His stats were abysmal (20 of 40 for 161 yards, 2 INTs) and the run game produced 43 yards outside of his scrambles.
Without Kyler Murray for a second game in a row Arizona was limited to 143 yards passing and 65 yards rushing in the 34-10 loss to Carolina. Backup QB Colt McCoy posted a 49.4 rating as star WR DeAndre Hopkins sat out for a second consecutive game.
Both teams filed lengthy injury reports. Apart from Murray and Hopkins the Cardinals have S Budda Baker (heel), DT Corey Peters (shoulder), G Justin Pugh (calf), LB Tanner Vallejo (knee) and RB Jonathan Ward (concussion) all sitting out for two consecutive days. For Seattle RB Alex Collins (groin), TE Gerald Everett (groin), DE Kerry Hyder (calf) and T Jamarco Jones (back) have missed back to back practices while half the OL and a couple of key players in the secondary (Jamal Adams and D.J. Reed) limited.
The opening total on this game was 50.5 but the line is dropping fast. So if you want to bet on it before it gets really low you have to hurry.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Under 48.5 (-125)
Panthers shocked the world a week ago, demolishing Arizona 34-10 on their field. Yes, the Cardinals were without QB Kyler Murray but Carolina started P. J. Walker! However it was Cam Newton who stole the show just days after re-signing with the team. He threw a TD, ran for another and brought back hope that the playoffs are still an achievable goal. At 5-5 Carolina is seventh in the NFC standings and with three straight games against teams with losing records coming it’s time to put a foot on the gas pedal.
WFT is second to last in the NFC East but coming off a 29-19 win over the reigning Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ron Rivera comes back to Charlotte for the first time since being fired as a head coach on December 3, 2019. If there’s a coach, who knows Cam Newton inside out, that’s him. And no doubt, “Riverboat Ron” will come prepared.
WFT posted a long list of players on the injury report on Thursday. They are expected to be without their top two TEs on Sunday which will force them to give rookie John Bates his first start. WR Curtis Samuel remains sidelined with a groin injury, CB Benjamin St-Juste is in concussion protocol and three OL members are dealing with knee and ankle ailments.
A year ago Carolina beat WFT 20-13 even without RB Christian McCaffrey. After missing more than a month he came back last Sunday with 151 yards combined from scrimmage. The Panthers should ride him as long as he’s healthy in their playoff push.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Panthers Money Line (-164)
Up until last Monday there were three teams without a home win. After the 49ers thrashed the Rams it’s now down to two: Philadelphia and Detroit. The latter is 0-8-1 but the Eagles are 4-6 even without a single victory at Lincoln Financial Field and all the talk this week is about finally getting off the mark. Just a game out of Wild Card spots in the murky NFC time is running out for them to make a move.
Three weeks ago the Eagles shifted their focus on offense towards running the ball. Until then they were trying to become an explosive boom or bust team. The Eagles ran 46 times in the 44-6 win over Detroit, 39 times in the 27-24 last second loss against the Chargers and 39 times last week in the dominant 30-13 victory in Denver. Do not expect anything different against a team that is used facing a lot of run plays week after week.
The Saints were hit hard by the injury bug. RB Alvin Kamara missed the 23-21 loss against the Titans with a sprained MCL. He is expected to be a game-time decision on Sunday after missing Thursday’s practice. After sitting out against Tennessee starting LT Terron Armstead hasn’t practiced this week and his status is yet to be determined. There are six starters plus backup QB Taysom Hill as non-participants on Saints’ injury report while the Eagles have none!
It’s Philadelphia’s last home game in a month. I can’t imagine them being winless in the middle of December so I’ll back them in my NFL Week 11 picks straight up.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Eagles Money Line (-125)
The further the season goes, the stranger the results get. On Sunday Top 3 and six of the first eight DVOA ranked teams all lost by at least ten points! Week 11 kicks off with a Super Bowl LI rematch between the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots. According to many experts, this will be a total mismatch but let’s examine closely the TNF matchup.
At 6-4, the Patriots are second in the AFC East standings and have a firm grip of a Wild Card place. They are on a four-game winning streak with a combined point differential of 149-50. They are demolishing opponents and rookie QB Mac Jones is the second coming of Jesus, I mean Tom Brady. But they’ve lost against every opponent with a winning record they’ve faced so far (except the Chargers) and the combined record of beaten opponents is 20-36. Yes, the mediocrity rules in AFC…
At 4-5 the Falcons are last in the NFC South but just half a game outside of the NFC Wild Card. They were demolished 43-3 by the Cowboys on Sunday in a game that was over well before halftime. Matt Ryan threw two second-half interceptions, finishing 9-of-21 for just 117 yards. It was a disaster in all phases and I doubt they can play any worse than that.
Cordarelle Patterson is the biggest question mark for the Falcons. Their best offensive weapon sprained an ankle against the Cowboys and was held out in the second half with the game out of reach. WR Calvin Ridley is still away from the team dealing with personal matters and TE Hayden Hurst is questionable with an ankle injury.
Patriots’ RB Damien Harris is still in a concussion protocol but with the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson, he may not be needed anytime soon. RB Brandon Bolden is on the initial injury report but with 12 players listed as questionable, you can simply ignore this as one of Bill Belichick’s old tricks.
The Patriots are on a six-game winning streak against Atlanta and I don’t see it ending on Thursday. You can place your NFL Week 11 predictions around New England winning this one. The question is: by how much? The line opened at -4 but jumped by almost three points in less than a day. The Patriots are unbeaten away from home but maybe Matt Ryan has some magic left in him to keep the game close?
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Falcons +6.5 (-110)
First of all, let’s make it clear that NFL expert picks are betting predictions made by people with a particularly high level of knowledge and experience in uncovering the best bets in the league. Go this way and you’ll get perfectly reasonable suggestions on how to bet on selected games that give you the highest chance of winning.
The number of people that follow the advice of these selected NFL experts picks Week 11 has in the offer is constantly growing. Yes, the bettors who trust their own judgment have a strong case for doing so: they are fully responsible for both winning and losing, so there’s no one else to blame but themselves when failing. There are multiple reasons though why many consider expert picks to be the art form of NFL betting and prefer them. See which the most important ones are.
Have you decided in favor of following the experts’ advice with their special selection of NFL Week 11 predictions? If so, your next job is to know and understand the specifics of the betting markets. Here is a list of the three most popular among football betting enthusiasts:
All of them will be offered to you by every online sportsbook, so let's have a look at each one and explain how they work. Only when you have an understanding of the matter, you will be 100% ready to explore the NFL Week 11 best bets.
The straight-up or moneyline betting market is probably the simplest to understand. Here you will be offered odds about both of the teams involved in a NFL game and your only job is to wager on the team that you think will win. If your prediction is correct, your bet is a winning one and it will be settled at the odds you took. In short, when you see our NFL Week 11 picks straight up, you should be able to bet on them easily. Check the following example:
So let’s say you fancy Indianapolis to win the NFL game against the favorite Buffalo. You could bet on the Colts at odds of +230 and a stake of $100 would therefore give you a profit of $230 if they succeed. On the other hand, you have to wager $290 on Buffalo and the Bills have to win the game for your profit to be $100. This is as straightforward an example as you would find and now you should be ready to take advantage of our NFL Week 11 picks straight up.
The reason why people look for NFL Week 11 picks against the spread is that the odds for the two teams in a particular game can be quite different. By trying to even them up, all sportsbooks offer point spread markets that impose an artificial handicap on the team in the role of the favorite. The spreads give the underdog team an equal and opposing advantage, and consequently, the odds available tend to be much more balanced. Because of that, picks against the spread are in such demand. See this example:
|Los Angeles Chargers||-3.5||-110|
Here you see Pittsburgh being given an advantage of +3.5 points, while Los Angeles has a handicap of -3.5 points. If you place a wager on Los Angeles, the Chargers will need to win by 4 points or more for you to succeed. Bet on Pittsburgh and you will only lose if the Steelers lose by 4 points or more. With these conditions in place, the sportsbook is able to offer even odds for both teams.
When turning to expert predictions, you will surely run across NFL Week 11 picks against the spread. Just wager on the named team in the point spread market and you’ll have your winning bet served on a plate if the pick is correct.
This is the third main betting market, so you will undoubtedly find many sources for NFL Week 11 predictions for over/under. Here you only have one job: to predict whether the total number of points scored in the game by both teams combined will be Over or Under a total figure quoted by the sportsbook. Logically, that’s why this is also known as the Totals market. See the following example and you will get a grasp of the concept:
|San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars||Over 46.5/Under 46.5||-110/-110|
The good news is that over/under betting is just as simple as moneyline betting. (Especially if you have access to free NFL expert picks for Week 11 to help guide you through the process.) In our example, all you have to do is decide whether you think there will be over or under 46.5 points scored in the game by both teams combined. If you go for Over, there would need to be 47 points or more for your wager to succeed. Go for Under and there would need to be 46 points or fewer for your bet to win.
You got it now? If the answer is ‘yes’, check out our free expert picks above, find the NFL Week 11 best over/under bets available and place a wager.
Check out the success rate of the NFL predictions provided by our experts and see what lies ahead in the future.
NFL Picks Week 1 – NFL Picks Week 2 – NFL Week 3 Picks – NFL Week 4 Picks – Week 5 NFL Picks – Week 6 NFL Picks – Week 7 NFL Picks – Week 8 NFL Picks – Week 9 NFL Picks – NFL Week 10 Picks – Week 11 NFL Picks – Week 12 NFL Picks – Week 13 NFL Picks – Week 14 NFL Picks – NFL Week 15 Picks – NFL Week 16 Picks – Week 17 NFL Picks – NFL Playoffs Picks & Predictions – NFL Wild Card Predictions & Picks – NFL Divisional Round Predictions & Picks – NFL Conference Championship Predictions & Picks – Super Bowl Predictions & Picks
These are the expert’s betting choices for a NFL game and are based on hours and hours of research. You can either choose to follow these predictions or trust your own judgement.
There are many places where you can find NFL expert picks for Week 11. Not all experts are equal though, and most will charge you money to receive their predictions. The Week 11 NFL picks here at How To Bet are provided by some of the best specialists we’ve found in our extensive search. And the icing on the cake is that you can benefit from them completely for free.
In order to benefit from the NFL Week 11 best bets on the market, you need to do lots of research. You must check stats, injury lists, coach changes, weather forecast, and anything else that could affect the game. Most of all, you need to be able to analyse this information properly and also to read the game before all the action unfolds.
You can also follow expert NFL picks from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl. And it’s totally free here at How To Bet!
ESPN and CBS are regarded as the top of the pops for NFL picks among the big media outlets. But don’t hesitate to check How To Bet’s picks too. We have a great winning percentage that equals and many times even betters the success rates of some of the most popular experts.
Our Week 11 NFL picks are expert predictions based on solid data and analysis, but they are still only predictions. There is no guarantee that NFL picks from any source will win, and form upsets can occur at any point during the season. The only guarantee is that the expert picks have a much higher chance of winning because of the amount of work, knowledge, experience and advanced data access these specialists have. So always obey the golden rule of betting and never wager more than you can afford to lose in a worst-case scenario.
Get all the latest sports news, expert tips and reviews.