The stakes are high, as are our expectations for one of the last weekends of the regular season, so How To Bet is here with our NFL Week 16 picks to help you enjoy much happier holidays. Division titles and playoff berths are still in play which means the races are going to go down to the wire and that makes the matchups difficult to predict. That’s where our experts join the feast with their generous Christmas gifts. They forecast matchups based on analysing advanced data, exploring relevant trends, and taking into account the latest and most important team news, topped off with their innate hunch for the game. As you probably know by now, this is the proven recipe for success with our NFL Week 16 predictions. And you get them for free! Could you be given a better present than that?…
Free expert tips is what you really need in this joyous time of year: just take a couple of minutes to read our NFL Picks, place a wager and enjoy sports betting and, most of all, winning. Stop losing precious hours doing your own research for each game and looking around for the most attractive odds. Stay away from the screen and don’t wait 24/7 for any breaking news that could endanger your bet. Quit betting risky because of your team or player bias. Just leave it all to our experts who’ve already done the job for you unearthing the hidden value on the odds market and offering you the Week 16 NFL best bets on a plate.
On this page you will also see the odds movement and the complete schedule of games (we have Saturday action this week too) with some quick picks after the selected ones. Let’s get straight to winning!
On the third day of Christmas Monday Night Football was a horrible show that turned away most of the fans… That is not a foregone conclusion but nobody is expecting fireworks in this game. Both teams are fringe playoff contenders. Miami (7-7) is on a six-game winning streak (although just one of their opponents during the stretch is above .500) while the Saints (7-7) are coming off their most complete performance of the season beating the defending Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay 9-0. But COVID wreaked havoc in their squad ad threatens to kill off the momentum.
For the last 15 years Drew Brees was the only Saints’ starting QB. On Monday rookie Ian Book will become the fourth different this season only. The Notre Dame standout will be forced into action after Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian were placed on the COVID list. To back up Book the Saints signed veteran Blake Bortles who spent the offseason with Green Bay did not appear in a regular season game.
In the last 24 hours alone the Saints placed 12 players on the COVID list including almost half of their OL. T Terron Armstead is set to miss once again with a knee injury and New Orleans is down to just three healthy LBs.
Miami has seven players on the virus list but almost exclusively backups and practice squad members. They have no one listed on the injury report which is a rarity this late in the season. They are healthy at the right time and look ready to rumble in the Big Easy.
New Orleans played lights out defense against the Bucs a week ago and to stand a chance on Monday they need to repeat the performance. Miami is among the biggest overachievers in 2021. According to DVOA the Dolphins should’ve been 5-9 but they are 7-7. I was thinking about getting the under in my NFL Week 16 predictions before the COVID surge and even after it dropped by almost two points I will not back off.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Under 37.5 (-109)
Dallas got an early Christmas present in the form of a 49ers loss on Thursday. The Cowboys are already in the playoffs and it’s time to lock up the NFC East title. With a win they will secure the division and what can be more satisfying then doing it on national TV against an arch rival?
At 10-4 the Cowboys are currently the second seed in the NFC. It will be hard to surpass Green Bay for the top spot and get the home field advantage but prolonging the current three-game winning streak is important in terms of confidence.
T Tyron Smith is the only noticeable name on the injury report. The former first round pick has missed a couple games in a row and it’s still bothered by a bad ankle. Dallas, however, got some good news on the COVID front with the return of WR Osa Odighizuwa and is basically back to full strength.
Same cannot be said about WFT. QB Taylor Heinicke was removed from the COVID list and is expected to start on Sunday. However backup Kyle Allan is still out with the virus and as of Friday WFT still has 12 players on the COVID list, including their starting right guard.
WTF is on a short week after playing on Tuesday. They fought hard against the Eagles but fell to 6-8 and their playoff hopes are quickly fading. Dallas is among the leaders in ATS and last Sunday they covered against the Giants although not in the most convincing way. It’s worth monitoring the WTF COVID outbreak and if you can, wait until late with your NFL Week 16 picks against the spread.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Cowboys -10 (-111)
Kansas City is holding the top spot in the AFC and has a clear path to the home field advantage. Although the Chiefs (10-4) will face no teams with a losing record until the end of the regular season they control their own playoff destiny. One thing they don’t have control of, is COVID as they are in the midst of big outbreak.
Their leading WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce and three members of the OL have been placed on the virus list and need to have negative tests in two consecutive days to be available on Sunday. The Chiefs already declared K Harrison Butker out and are waiting for news on a couple of their DBs.
Pittsburgh (7-6-1) is third in the AFC North standings, half a game back of division leaders Cincinnati and two spots off the final Wild Card. Their remaining schedule is the forth-toughest and facing the Chiefs even decimated is not an easy task. LB Devin Bush was placed on the COVID list on Wednesday becoming the seventh Steeler there. The six-time Super Bowl champions are also bracing for news about rookie TE Pat Freiermuth who is in concussion protocol.
Anything other than a Chiefs win will be a shock. On a seven-game winning streak they have much bigger goals than dealing with an inconsistent team that is 2-4 on road. The Steelers were involved in a number of close games. This one should be no different but do not fall in love with their chances for an upset.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Steelers +8.5 (-110)
Tied for the top spot in the NFC West the LA Rams are traveling on a short week to the Central time zone for an early game on Sunday. At 10-4 they are in a fight with Arizona for a home game in the Wild Card playoff round and winning in Minneapolis is a must.
With some help from the referees LA overcame Seattle 20-10 to move into a tie with the Cardinals in the NFC West standings. However Arizona has a better divisional record and owns the tiebreak. The Rams are still dealing with the effects of the COVID outbreak and have a dozen players on the virus list. But this is nothing compeer what hit the Vikings.
On Thursday evening Minnesota put RB Dalvin Cook on the COVID/reserve list, where he joined Alexander Mattison and A.J. Rose. Thus the Vikings have only one healthy back in rookie Kene Nwangwu who is primarily a return man. They signed veteran Wayne Gallman but FB C.J. Ham suffered a hamstring injury during a practice and his status is unknown.
But the biggest concern for the Vikings fans should be the secondary. After CB Bashaud Breeland was released they changed their scheme to zonal. It was good enough to beat the hapless Bears (17-9) but dealing with the leading WR in the league (Cooper Kupp) will be hard, moreover with the return of OBJ.
I’ve been wrong on the majority of Vikings’ games this season but seeing them winning on Sunday will be a shock for me. You can back the Rams in your NFL Week 16 predictions.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Rams Money Line (-179)
This one can easily be named COVID Bowl. The Chargers have placed 12 players on the virus list since the beginning of the week. The Texans – 14, giving them a total of 21. They are so thin on the DL that they had to bring players off the street just to fill up the 53 active spots. And now they have to face an angry team that was a minute away from going top of the AFC West standings!
The Chargers (8-6) lost an overtime thriller against the Chiefs (28-34) to drop to sixth in the playoff standings and will have to sweat until the last week of the regular season for their tournament fate. For their visit to Houston they are expected to be without RB Austin Ekeler, WR Jalen Guyton, DE Joey Bosa, C Corey Linsley among others but they should face a little trouble against an overmatched opponent.
The Texans got their just third win of the season a week ago beating the lowly Jaguars 30-16. Even with the triumph they are still among the worst statistically teams in the league. The Texans are 30th in total DVOA and 32nd on offense. And they will be without head coach David Culley on Sunday after he tested positive for COVID.
There are not many sure things in the NFL these days but the Chargers should be able to handle Houston with ease. The only question is by how much will they win?
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Chargers -10.5 (-106)
Just ten days ago the Arizona were leading the NFC and a win away from reaching the playoffs but after two straight losses (30-23 to LA Rams and 30-12 to Detroit) nothing is guaranteed anymore. A loss on Saturday and the Birds could find themselves down in the Wild Card spots.
And while Arizona is trending downwards, the Colts are nearing the once runaway AFC South leaders Tennessee. Indianapolis (8-6) is a game back in the loss column but as they were swept by the Titans the deficit is basically two games with three to play.
Coming off a bye week the Colts destroyed New England 27-17 for their fifth win in the last six games. RB Jonathan Taylor ran for 170 yards and a score and has now reached the end zone in 15 consecutive games (on a side note: you can bet with confidence that he will do it in 16 straight as it will be just two shy of the NFL record and the longest streak in almost two decades). The only question mark for Indianapolis is whether S Andrew Sendejo will clear concussion protocol while C Ryan Kelly is still away from the team after the death of his daughter.
On the injury front things are looking very bleak for the Cardinals. WR DeAndre Hopkins is out for another month. RB James Conner has chronic heel pain and C Max Garcia has a troublesome knee. Add in the fact that Arizona is 3-3 at home while the Colts are over .500 in away games and you should back Indy with your NFL Week 16 picks against the spread
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Colts +1.5 (-111)
Despite the two-day postponement Cleveland still lost to the Raiders and instead leading the AFC North is sitting outside the playoffs. At 7-7 the Browns cannot afford a second straight loss but playing against the NFC leaders was not on their Christmas wish list. The Packers are the only team that has secured a playoff berth so far and if they win out they will get the home field advantage on the road to Super Bowl LVI.
Green Bay escaped Baltimore with a 31-30 win after a failed two-point conversion in the final minute to improve to 11-3. They clinched the NFC North title for the third year in a row despite missing almost half of their OL. T David Bakhtiari and G Billy Turner are both still out with knee injuries and for QB Aaron Rodgers the toe is still not 100% but even on one good foot he’s marching towards another MVP.
The Browns are still dealing with a COVID outbreak and on top of that DE Myles Garrett has suffered a groin injury against Las Vegas and is questionable for Saturday. For a team that is already without DE Jadeveon Clowney and possibly DT Malik Jackson it does not bode well.
Cleveland defense is only 23rd against the pass in DVOA and will have to face the top ranked air offense. Rodgers is shredding opposing secondaries week after week and this should not be any different. I feel uneasy with the 7.5-point spread but until RB Nick Chubb proves he hasn’t lost his touch, I see no reason to believe in Cleveland.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Packers -7 (-139)
The last edition of Thursday Night Football for 2021 could’ve not been better. The AFC South leaders Tennessee Titans (9-5) against a team nobody is itching to face. The Niners (8-6) have won five of their last six games with the only loss coming after a tipped pass at the goal line against Seattle (23-30). It was a game they had to play without WR Deebo Samuel but on Thursday SF may be in full strength offensively with RB Elijah Mitchell slated to return after a concussion.
49ers beat Atlanta 31-13 on Sunday after RB Jeff Wilson ran for 110 yards and QB Jimmy Garoppolo finished with a 123.7 rating. The defense even without CB Emmanuel Moseley (sprained ankle, out for Thursday as well) and LB Azeez Al-Shaair (elbow, may be back against Tennessee) forced a fumble and stopped the Falcons twice on fourth down at the 1 and further solidified themselves amongst the elite units this season.
Tennessee continued its tailspin, losing for the third time in their last four games (19-13 to Pittsburgh) and is just a game ahead of Indianapolis atop the AFC South. Titans’ offense sputtered once again and is averaging just 18.3 points per game after RB Derrick Henry broke his foot on October 31st. The reinforcements are on the way as WR A. J. Brown had his training window opened on Monday after an IR stint but whether he is available against the Niners is still unclear.
Tennessee needs two wins to guarantee the division title but it will be hard to get the first on Thursday. They just don’t match well against San Francisco. The Titans are a run-first team but only New Orleans have better DVOA stats than the Niners. SF won the last two games in the series and with the streak they are on, it will take a good defense or an explosive offense to stop them. Tennessee has neither of the two.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: 49ers Money Line (-175)
A clarification on what NFL expert picks are is needed first and we’ll give it right away so that you know why to use them in Week 16. They are selected betting predictions made by people with a particularly high level of knowledge and experience in uncovering the best bets in the league. If you decide to follow them, what you’ll get are perfectly reasonable suggestions on how to bet on carefully picked games that give you the highest chance of winning. This way you will also become part of the ever-growing number of punters that look for these selected NFL expert picks Week 16 has on offer.
The truth is though that no one can force you to choose this route. If you trust your own judgement, you will be fully responsible for both winning and losing and you won't hold a grudge against external factors when failing.
While this is a relevant point, there are still so many reasons why the majority prefers expert picks and considers them to be the art form of NFL betting. The most important ones are listed below.
If you have decided in favor of following the experts’ advice with their special selection of NFL Week 16 predictions, your next job is to know and understand the specifics of the betting markets. The three most popular among football betting enthusiasts are:
All of them will for sure be offered to you by every online sportsbook, so let's look at each one and explain how they work. After that you’ll have a complete understanding of the matter and you’ll be 100% ready to explore the NFL Week 16 best bets.
The straight up or moneyline betting market is probably the simplest to understand. Here you will be offered odds about both of the teams involved in a NFL game and your only job is to wager on the team that you think will win. If your prediction is correct, your bet is a winning one and it will be settled at the odds you took. In short, when you see our NFL Week 16 picks straight up, you should be able to bet on them easily. Check the following example:
|New England Patriots||-135|
So let’s say you fancy the Buffalo Bills to win the NFL game against the favorite New England. You could bet on the Bills at odds of +115 and a stake of $100 would therefore give you a profit of $115 if they succeed. On the other hand, you have to wager $135 on New England and the Patriots have to win the game for your profit to be $100. This is as straightforward an example as you would find and now you should be ready to take advantage of our NFL Week 16 picks straight up.
The reason why people look for NFL Week 16 picks against the spread is because the odds for the two teams in a particular game can be quite different. By trying to even them up, all sportsbooks offer point spread markets that impose an artificial handicap on the team in the role of the favorite. The spreads give the underdog team an equal and opposing advantage, and consequently the odds available tend to be much more balanced. Because of that, picks against the spread are in such demand. See this example:
|Kansas City Chiefs||-10.5||-110|
Here you see Pittsburgh being given an advantage of +10.5 points, while the heavy favorite Kansas City have a handicap of -10.5 points. If you place a wager on the Chiefs, they will need to win by 11 points or more for you to succeed. Bet on the Steelers and you will only lose if they lose by 11 points or more. With these conditions in place, the sportsbook is able to offer even odds for both teams (-110).
When turning to expert predictions, you will surely run across NFL Week 16 picks against the spread. Just wager on the named team in the point spread market and you’ll have your winning bet served on a plate if the pick is correct.
This is the third main betting market, so you will undoubtedly find many sources for NFL Week 16 over/ under picks and predictions. Here you only have one job: to predict whether the total number of points scored in the game by both teams combined will be Over or Under a total figure quoted by the sportsbook. Logically, that’s why this is also known as the Totals market. See the following example and you will get a grasp of the concept:
|Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints||Over 40.5/Under 40.5||-110/-110|
The good news is that over/under betting is just as simple as moneyline betting. (Especially if you have access to free NFL expert picks for Week 16 to help guide you through the process.) In our example, all you have to do is decide whether you think there will be over or under 40.5 points scored in the game by both teams combined. If you go for Over, there would need to be 41 points or more for your wager to succeed. Go for Under and there would need to be 40 points or fewer for your bet to win.
You got it now? If the answer is ‘yes’, check out our free expert picks above, find the best bets available for NFL Week 16 point totals and place a wager.
Check out the success rate of the NFL predictions provided by our experts and see what lies ahead in the future.
These are the expert’s betting choices for a NFL game and are based on hours and hours of research. You can either choose to follow these predictions or trust your own judgement.
There are many places where you can find NFL expert picks for Week 16. Not all experts are equal though, and most will charge you money to receive their predictions. The Week 16 NFL picks here at How To Bet are provided by some of the best specialists we’ve found in our extensive search. And the icing on the cake is that you can benefit from them completely for free.
In order to benefit from the NFL Week 16 best bets on the market, you need to do lots of research. You must check stats, injury lists, coach changes, weather forecast, and anything else that could affect the game. Most of all, you need to be able to analyse this information properly and also to read the game before all the action unfolds.
You can also follow expert NFL picks from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl. And it’s totally free here at How To Bet!
ESPN and CBS are regarded as the top of the pops for NFL picks among the big media outlets. But don’t hesitate to check How To Bet’s picks too. We have a great winning percentage that equals and many times even betters the success rates of some of the most popular experts.
Our Week 16 NFL picks are expert predictions based on solid data and analysis, but they are still only predictions. There is no guarantee that NFL picks from any source will win, and form upsets can occur at any point during the season. The only guarantee is that the expert picks have a much higher chance of winning because of the amount of work, knowledge, experience and advanced data access these specialists have. So always obey the golden rule of betting and never wager more than you can afford to lose in a worst-case scenario.
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