Having the ability to read Super Bowl odds, lines, spreads, totals, etc. is a fundamental skill. At least when it comes to placing successful wagers on the biggest sporting event in the US and one of the biggest on the whole planet. It all starts right after the ending of the last edition of the Big Game when sportsbooks post their probabilities for the next champion in their futures betting markets. The public is crazy about it and it turns into a total frenzy when the time comes for the two remaining teams to determine who will win the Lombardi Trophy.
This is a huge factor for the Super Bowl line movement and provides the opportunity for sharp bettors to take advantage. In our guide you’ll learn all you need to know about being able to benefit from the wildness all around. You’ll see the early and the latest 2022 Super Bowl odds for moneylines, spreads, totals, futures, some props, and more. We will also show you how to read them correctly so that you can use them in your favor. All in all, you’ll get to know how to make Super Bowl bets properly and win real money.
This question is perhaps the most intriguing one amongst football betting fans, as Super Bowl odds are the most waited for in the whole sporting calendar in the US. The beginning of the process is set almost immediately after the NFL Conference Championship games and it goes on even during the Big Game with live wagering. Here’s how the 2022 Super Bowl odds and lines moved.
The opening Super Bowl line had the Rams as a 3.5-point favorite over the Bengals and the over/under was set at 49.5. One of the main reasons for it was the fact that they are practically the “home” team (even though nominally it’s the one from Cincinnati) because the game will be played at their SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. There’s only one precedent and it happened in the previous edition – in 2021 – when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the first team to win the Lombardi Trophy at their own arena.
The Bengals are used to the role of the underdog though. Their early Super Bowl odds were pretty scary at +6600, with only two teams worse than them. So they are by far the biggest climbers in expectations from preseason until today. The Rams had opening odds for this season at +2000 so the sportsbooks considered their chances to win the trophy to be the joint 8th best in the whole of the NFL and the 2nd shortest in their division, behind only the 49ers.
Early Super Bowl line movement shifted the spread from Rams -3.5 to -4.5 thanks to the heavier bets pouring in on the LA contestant but now the handle is being turned toward the Bengals, especially on the moneyline market. The total went from 49.5 to 50 to now 48.5 and so far the punters lean towards the over even though both Conference Championship games were unders.
Following early line moves is often a rewarding strategy. Sharp bettors place their bets on opening odds and later they may adjust wagering against the public and in case of important team news. This is a recipe for winners, as the early money were on the right track in 11 of the last 14 editions of the Big Game, with one of the other three being a ‘push’ (a tie between the bettor and the sportsbook).
Early action taught oddsmakers a lesson in Super Bowl XIII when the initial heavy betting on the underdog Dallas Cowboys dropped the spread from +4.5 to +3.5. In the end the favorite Pittsburgh Steelers won 35-31, so the sportsbooks had to pay both the early and the late bettors who wagered respectively on +4.5 and +3.5. This is the famous Super Bowl Black Sunday that sports betting fans still talk about. And while it’s highly improbable that sportsbooks will make that same mistake twice, it’s worth remembering as an example of the importance of early betting and following the line movement for picking the right moment to place your wager.
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Knowing how to follow the Super Bowl spread odds and bet at the right moment is an art in itself. The -4.5 line indicates that sportsbooks still have faith in the underdog Bengals but if it moves back to the starting quote of -3.5 the Rams might be worth the bet. After all, the LA team is the one with more talent on their roster and have top end pass rushers to put the heat on the still young, in quarterback terms, Joe Burrow like they did against Jimmy Garoppolo and Tom Brady in previous rounds.
Anyway, you should remember that the Bengals ATS record in their last seven games is 7-0. And if you are a fan of simulations, the initial one of CBS Sports research analyst Stephen Oh has the Rams winning probability at 58% by a 3.5 points average. So if the line stays at +4.5, placing a wager on the Bengals seems a good idea. Still, it’s better to wait a little longer for news on the injury status of both teams starting tight ends Tyler Higbee and C.J. Uzomah before you commit your money.
We’ve already covered so much ground on the point spread subject, yet there’s something else important that you should know: history shows only six cases when the favorite won the Lombardi Trophy but didn’t manage to cover the spread (1976, 1989, 1996, 2004, 2005, and 2009). What this means is that if you pick the favorite, and this year it’s the Rams, on the Super Bowl line for a straight up wager and back the same team for the spread, you’re very likely to cash in on both fronts if your chosen side wins the Big Game.
There was one instance where we had a pick’em consensus – in the 2015 Super Bowl when the New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks 28-24 – and the 1997 and 2000 editions produced pushes.
If you’re looking at the Super Bowl over/ under odds and thinking about placing a bet, you should consider two things. The first is that most of the projections have the total at 48 points, so the under at the moment (48.5) is worth backing. The second thing is the ‘under’ record of both teams. The Bengals are 8-2 away and 12-9 in general this season in this regard, and the Rams are 6-4 at their stadium and 9-10-1 in general. Add to that the expectations that Cincinnati won’t be able to execute efficient offense against the LA strong defense, and the under seems even more worthy option.
As for the history books, the balance of overs and unders is a match before Super Bowl 56 at 27-27 (no total in the first edition between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs). The lowest total was 16 points in 2019 (New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams 13-3) and the highest was in the 29th edition at 75 points (San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers 49-26).
One of the biggest conveniences of online sports betting for the Big Game is the option to follow live Super Bowl bets and place wagers while the action unfolds. Moneyline, spread, over/under, props – it’s all available for you while you watch the contest on the big TV screen at home or at the sports bar. If you have a clear projection of the game in your head and it starts going the same way you expected, you may find more favorable Super Bowl odds then in comparison to the pre-game quotes.
There are different types of props – team/player/game/exotic – and Super Bowl prop bets are the pinnacle of that betting market in the US. Most of these side bets reflect the possibilities of exceeding or falling short of specific statistical benchmarks but there are some fun novelties as well, like wagering on the Super Bowl Gatorade color odds, the odds for the national anthem performance length, or the halftime show.
A player prop bet for example may be one where a quarterback will throw more or less than 200 yards, or a wide receiver will have more than 5 receptions. A team side bet may be based on the number of points one of the teams will give up or the way a touchdown will be scored.
In terms of individual awards, this one is by far the most prestigious and that’s why the Super Bowl MVP odds are followed in such enormous proportions. Something important you should keep in mind is that quarterbacks have been the MVPs in 31 of the 55 Big Games thus far and five players in this position won on multiple occasions.
This means that the ones on the top of the list of the Super Bowl MVP odds, unsurprisingly, are Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow. This will be a battle of two №1 overall picks in the NFL Draft, in 2009 and 2020 respectively, both at the quarterback position. Rams’ orchestra conductor Stafford took his team to its second Super Bowl game in three years under the guidance of young coach Sean McVay, and this time he’ll want to show he can bring the Lombardi Trophy home unlike his predecessor Jared Goff. Stafford also got his first playoff wins after 12 meager years at the Detroit Lions.
The Bengals make their first appearance in the Big Game since 1988 and they owe much of their success to Joe Burrow. The young gun matured in an unexpected manner in the playoffs this year, which is his first as a starting quarterback in the NFL. In all his postseason matchups thus far he’s produced at least 244 passing yards and pushed his team to the maximum of its potential against so many opponents that were considered the clear favorites. If he can do this just one more time, the MVP award will surely go to him and deservedly so.
Currently, Matthew Stafford is the sportsbook MVP favorite (+100) and Joe Burrow follows closely (+225). Wide receiver Cooper Kupp is the first name after both quarterbacks at +600 and then come Aaron Donald (+1600), Ja'Marr Chase (+1800), Odell Beckham Jr. (+2800), Cam Akers (+3500), Von Miller, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon at +4500,and many more. CJ Uzomah is listed at +10 000, but he’s injured and you shouldn’t place any wagers on him as of today. The same goes for any players that are questionable for the Big Game.
The Super Bowl MVP odds on kickers aren’t favorable at all, which is logical considering the fact that a player in that position has never won the award and only one special teamer has done it previously (the kick returner Desmond Howard in 1997 with his epic 99-yards return).
This is a betting market that opens the day, or sometimes just hours after the last Big Game is over. It’s a tough job to pick the right moment to wager on the Super Bowl future odds because line movements switch on a weekly basis, depending on the situation with injuries, trades, free agency, draft picks, coach changes, and schedules. You can test your prediction skills by betting on the next Super Bowl winner or MVP months in advance, and the feeling you’ll get if you win in the end is incomparable. As is the money, especially if you placed your wager on a longshot.
Opening Super Bowl 56 odds for the winning team were posted on the Sunday of the Conference Championship games last season. How To Bet will remind you what they were back then and will give you a first look at the odds for the 2023 winner.
Sportsbooks present their Super Bowl odds in different ways and you may see them appear in fractions, decimals, American (moneyline), or implied probability. Fractions are used mainly in the UK and Ireland, quoting the potential profit plus the stake. Decimals are popular in Europe and quote the potential return minus the stake. As for the American (moneyline) odds, you can learn more on our NFL Odds page. Implied probability odds measure in percentages how likely a certain outcome of an event is.
The Rams Super Bowl odds for the point spread started at -3.5, went to -4, and are now at -4.5, and the moneyline for the LA team moved from -180 to -190. As for the futures, the favorite in the Big Game started the season with opening odds of +2000 to become the new champion, which was joint 8th along with the Seattle Seahawks and the Cleveland Browns.
The fast start leading to a 7-1 record changed Rams’ 2022 Super Bowl odds, as did their trades for Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. and their 12-5 regular season record. After three straight losses, they peaked in the right moment just before the postseason and in the playoffs they defeated the Cardinals, the defending champion Buccaneers, and the 49ers. This has led them into entering the deciding game as the favorite to win it at their own stadium.
The Bengals enter the Big Game as the second-biggest underdogs in history since 1977 but they just love proving people wrong. Their win against the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime after trailing 18 points is now tied for the largest comeback in an AFC Conference Championship game ever! The odds on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl went from +140 to +155 for the moneyline and from +3.5 to +4.5 for the point spread. In terms of future bets, they entered the season with +6600 odds to become champions along with the Texans and the Giants, ahead of only the Lions and the Jets.
Drafting the wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase with the 5th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft instead of an offensive lineman didn’t earn them plaudits in the oddsmaker circles and Joe Burrow was still finding his feet after his ACL injury in the previous season.The Bengals are always a danger when written off though and they proved it in the playoffs by defeating the Raiders, the Titans, and the Chiefs. Those of you who backed Cincinnati as a longshot before the NFL campaign deserve a huge ovation no matter how the story ends in LA.
Here are some betting statistical trends you may find useful when looking at Super Bowl odds before deciding what wager to place. You can also check our Super Bowl predictions that are based on sophisticated betting models using advanced stats.
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