When it comes to soccer betting, there are a multitude of strategies that bettors can pursue. More advanced and experienced bettors may sometimes pursue a strategy around “dropping odds,” which requires a certain amount of dedication and good timing but can be a great way to find value in the market.
What Are Dropping Odds
The concept of dropping odds refers to a sudden shift in the betting odds of a game that could be a reaction to an important occurrence or a shift to reflect the true probability of how a match will end. To qualify as dropping odds, there needs to be a change of at least 15% or 20% in the betting odds of a match at 70% or more of sportsbooks. This situation represents a global shift in the odds of a game.
In soccer, there could be a variety of reasons why the odds of a match change so suddenly. There could be news of an injury to a key player. There could be news of one team firing its manager in the lead-up to a match. There could also be a surprise after the starting lineups are announced that cause a sportsbook to change their odds. There could also be a massive shift in the way that bettors are making wagers on a specific match, forcing sportsbooks to alter their odds for a specific match. No matter the reason, dropping odds refers to a sudden and substantial change in the odds of a match.
How to Take Advantage of Dropping Odds
Naturally, the question is how bettors can take advantage of dropping odds. As mentioned, taking advantage of this takes a high level of dedication. Bettors need to be monitoring at least five to 10 sportsbooks simultaneously, looking for changes in the odds of a certain match. If at least 70% of those sportsbooks have a sudden change in the odds, they’re offering for a certain match, and it means the odds for that match have dropped. The idea for bettors is to place a bet at one of the sportsbooks that are slow to alter their odds in line with the other sportsbooks.
For example, let’s say there is a team that most sportsbooks list at +200 to win a match. If a star player on the opposing team is announced to be injured and unable to play, sportsbooks will likely adjust their odds. If you’re monitoring five sportsbooks and four of them have changed that underdog’s moneyline to +150 to win, you will want to place a bet on that team at +200 at the one sportsbook that’s been slow to adjust its odds.
In this scenario, the team in question suddenly has a better chance to win the match. The odds have dropped at most sportsbooks, so you want to find a sportsbook that’s slow to react and offers a more lucrative moneyline. If you can place the bet at +200 before that sportsbook is able to respond to the lineup change, it means the bet you placed will be more favorable for you than it would be if you placed the bet at one of the sportsbooks that were quick to change its odds. It doesn’t guarantee that you’ll win the bet, but you’ll have placed a bet with far more value.
How to Be Successful with Dropping Odds
If you want to be successful with soccer bets and dropping odds, it’s critical that you’re familiar with the league and the teams involved. You’ll want to understand why the odds of a certain match are what they are and what could potentially make them change suddenly. This will help you anticipate X-factors that would cause sportsbooks to change their odds for a match in a meaningful way.
It’s also recommended to be monitoring the odds of at least five to 10 sportsbooks in real-time. With more practice, you may start to recognize patterns of what sportsbooks are quick to react to changes and what sportsbooks are slow. Either way, it’s important to remain vigilant and be quick to respond to any new information that could have an impact on betting odds. Most sportsbooks stay on top of these things, so it could only be a matter of minutes that you have to take advantage of dropping odds, find value, and put the odds in your favor.