The underdogs always hit home when it comes to the high stakes, nail-biting, adrenaline-pumping world of NFL betting. Fans and gamblers go wild when an underdog team wins against the odds.
The NFL betting landscape is complex, and it even may be difficult for seasoned pros to find their way around. In 2023, HowToBet.com is your go-to resource to learn about betting on the NFL with the right underdog betting tips and much more.
We simplify the complexity of the sport with professional analysis, up-to-date data, and individualized strategies. Jump right into the absolute NFL underdog betting action, thanks to HowToBet.com!
Understanding NFL Underdog Betting
When it comes to betting on sports, the NFL is in a class of its own. There’s an absolute haven of betting opportunities due to the sport’s large following, thrilling matches, and random results. One of them is betting on the underdog, which has recently gained popularity but requires careful knowledge and consideration.
Bets placed on the team with the lower odds are known as “underdog bets” in the NFL. Despite the increased perceived risk, the possible rewards make this a tempting choice for those who are ready to take the plunge.
However, reckless risk-taking isn’t really an option. Betting for the underdog requires a sharp eye, as you’ll need to consider several elements, such as team form, head-to-head statistics, injuries, and more. This in-depth research guarantees that your bets are based on solid evidence instead of guesswork.
The odds alone aren’t enough to determine who the underdog is. A real underdog might be up against a traditionally successful club or deal with adversity, such as losing a key player. These details separate a calculated risk from a rash one – which we want you to avoid.
Both inexperienced and seasoned gamblers may benefit immensely from the right tools and strategies, which are the key to making more informed bets.
Profitable underdog bets need knowledge gained through research, practice, and a dash of intuition. Betting may be lucrative for those who go into it prepared, but only if they know the risks.
Historical Performance of NFL Underdogs
There are several examples throughout NFL history of tear-jacking underdog stories that have altered the course of history. The joy of these upsets has been felt by NFL fans and the brave gamblers who backed the underdogs.
The 2002 Super Bowl had a classic underdog story. The New England Patriots, headed by a rookie quarterback named Tom Brady, took on the St. Louis Rams, who were the favorites. The Patriots kicked a field goal with no time remaining to beat the odds and win the game 20-17 – history was made!
During the 2017–18 postseason, another legendary upset occurred. After losing Carson Wentz for the season due to injury, the Philadelphia Eagles were able to come back under backup quarterback Nick Foles. The Eagles weren’t given much chance to win Super Bowl LII against the dominant New England Patriots. However, in a memorable game, they won 41–33, and Foles caught a touchdown pass on a play that has since been known as the “Philly Special.”
Stories of such on-field excellence are sometimes accompanied by stories of underdog backers who cashed in big – which we’ll explain as case studies down below. These games further demonstrate that NFL underdog betting is one-of-a-kind, thanks to the NFL's inherent volatility, even if favorites certainly have their moment in the sun.
Strategies for Betting on NFL Underdogs
NFL underdog betting is appealing not just because it's exciting to cheer for an underdog but also because of the high potential returns. Knowing NFL underdog strategies will massively improve your chances of winning when betting on these teams. Therefore, let’s have a closer look at some of these complex betting strategies and NFL betting tips to make the most out of your next session.
Focus on Divisional Matchups
In the NFL, games may be very tense and unpredictable. When pitted against more well-known opponents, underdogs can find new levels of motivation and performance. Another factor working against the ‘favorites' is the extensive familiarity each team has with one another’s methods due to their regular matches.
Evaluate Recent Team Form
When betting on an underdog in the NFL, recent team form may be a strong sign of success. A team’s momentum and dynamics are generally shown by their performance in the most recent 3-5 games, but season-long statistics give an overall picture. An underdog on a winning run or making significant strides might pull off an upset. The opposite is true if the oddsmaker’s favorite is on a downward spiral or displaying weaknesses.
Injuries and Roster Changes
Injuries and other changes to a team’s roster play a crucial part in the NFL and may have a major influence on the outcome of a game. It’s game on for the underdog when a key player is out, provided they stay healthy. Furthermore, midseason moves or dramatic changes in team chemistry may improve the underdog’s prospects or lessen the favorite’s domination. Underdog bets may have more value than expected, and such insights may help bring that to light.
Analyze Weather Conditions
In the NFL, weather may have an outsized impact on games. When a high-scoring favored team depends on its passing game, factors like severe rain, snow, or strong winds may level the playing field. These weather patterns may limit aerial assaults while favoring ground games, benefiting the underdog. And teams who aren’t used to playing in harsh circumstances (like a dome squad in the snow) may struggle.
Public Perception vs. Reality
The public’s view of a team, often influenced by media narratives and recent highlights, may sometimes align with the squad’s ability. Mispriced odds may result when the public’s perception is skewed by a popular team or a recent outstanding performance. Smart gamblers go below the surface, considering performance indicators, matchups, and other factors that the general public may ignore.
Trust Reliable Sources and Data
Separating reality from fiction in sports data is crucial. There is no lack of speculation, particularly on social media, but betting selections grounded in solid information may greatly improve the accuracy of forecasts. Expert sports analysts, trustworthy statistics databases, and reliable NFL-centric platforms all provide data-driven, evidence-based analysis to the conversation. Rather than being influenced by sensationalist stories or anecdotal assertions, bettors should rely on these reputable sources.
Risks and Mitigations
Betting always entails some degree of danger. You’re going against the wind at NFL underdog betting, so the stakes might seem higher than usual. Anyone interested in NFL underdog betting with a clear and strategic head must know these hazards and how to minimize them. Here are some NFL betting insights you should keep in mind:
- Risk: Higher Chances of Loss – Underdogs are called this way because they are often thought to have a lower probability of winning.
- Mitigation: Diversify Your Bets – Don’t risk everything on a single long shot. To reduce exposure, diversify your bets over several different games or bet kinds.
- Risk: Inconsistent Performances – An Underdog’s performance may swing wildly, from a huge win to a devastating defeat.
- Mitigation: Conduct Thorough Research – In other words, prepare by doing in-depth analysis. Consider previous results, upcoming opponents, and other relevant considerations.
- Risk: Public Bias – Betting lines may shift away from reflecting true probabilities of outcomes in favor of the direction in which the public is investing their money.
- Mitigation: Trust Data Over Hype – Instead of going by the consensus, depend on hard data and expert analysis to determine the real odds of each game.
- Risk: Emotional Betting – The exhilaration of a possible large win might lead to irrational betting, which is always a risk.
- Mitigation: Stick to a Budget and a Strategy – Prepare for it by not straying from your plan or budget. Bet rationally, not emotionally, and never pursue your losses.
Case Studies of Profitable NFL Underdog Bets
Over the years, the NFL has had its share of twists and turns. Not only do these upsets make fans happy, but they also provide huge returns to those who bet on the underdogs. Many people have won betting on underdog teams, but what is it about these games that makes them stand out as really memorable? Let’s look at some of the most famous case studies of underdog bets in NFL betting that have paid off big:
| Case Study | Description |
| Super Bowl XXXVI - New England Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams | The underdog New England Patriots, headed by a young Tom Brady, took on the favored St. Louis Rams in 2002. The Rams, known as “The Greatest Show on Turf,” were given a 14-point advantage. Many people thought the Patriots were fortunate just to reach the championship game. A 20–17 Patriots victory seemed impossible, but the underdog paid off big for those who backed them, spawning the Brady–Belichick dynasty. |
| Super Bowl LII - Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots | During the season 2017 - 2018, the exact opposite happened. After losing quarterback Carson Wentz, the Philadelphia Eagles became the underdog against the New England Patriots. The Eagles’ backup quarterback Nick Foles, led the team to victory. Despite being heavily outnumbered, the Eagles were able to pull off a 41-33 victory. Foles not only won the Super Bowl MVP award, but he also guided his team to victory. Those who staked their money on the Eagles’ ability to bounce back made a killing. |
| 2010 NFC Wildcard - Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints | The 7-9 Seattle Seahawks made history as the first club ever to qualify for the playoffs while having a losing record. They hosted the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints in the NFC Wildcard game. The Saints were heavy favorites to win because of their better record and their previous year’s success. But in a surprising turn of events, the Seahawks kept things close throughout. Marshawn Lynch’s amazing 67-yard touchdown run was the defining moment, commonly dubbed the “Beast Quake” owing to the seismic activity the cheering Seattle supporters created. The underdog Seahawks of Seattle shocked the football world with a 41-36 triumph, rewarding their supporters. |
