Is it Worth Betting on Own Goals in Soccer?

Is it Worth Betting on Own Goals in Soccer?

If you’re wondering whether it’s worth betting on own goals in soccer, the answer to that would be the same as with any other question regarding betting – it depends. However, while a bet on own goals in soccer is an exotic bet, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a bad bet; it all depends on the situation.

What is Betting on Own Goals, and Is It Worth It?

As the name would suggest, Own Goal is a bet type that allows you to predict whether there will be an own goal in a soccer match. It doesn’t get much simpler than that, and it’s the only explanation you need. 

There are two types of own goal bets. The first allows you to bet on whether there will be an own goal in a match, while the other allows you to predict whether a specific player will score an own goal. It’s essentially the same thing as betting on a soccer player to score a goal in a match, only here you’re predicting whether he’ll put the ball into his own net.

Now that we got the basics out of the way, we have to figure out whether it is even worth betting on own goals in soccer? 

The own goal market will usually offer very generous odds and high potential payouts. That is definitely something any bettor will want to hear; however, big odds don’t necessarily mean that a bet is worth taking.

The only bets worth taking are those who offer value, i.e., bets where the probability of a certain outcome happening is higher than the implied probability reflected by the offered odds.

It’s a fairly simple concept – if something is 50% likely to happen and the betting odds imply that the outcome is 40% likely to happen, you have found a bet worth taking. So when it comes to betting on own goals in soccer, all you need to do is figure out how likely is it that a match will see an own goal. 

How Frequent are Own Goals in Soccer

Own goal is arguably the most humiliating thing that can happen to a soccer player. It’s viewed as a huge blunder and one of the most counterproductive things you can do as a player for your team.

Obviously, own goals are never intentional and happen exclusively as a result of a mistake or an instance of bad luck. Although own goals are important in soccer betting, it’s also nearly impossible to predict whether an own goal will happen or not.

By betting on own goals, you’re essentially predicting that a player will either make an unintentional mistake or have bad luck on the day and see the ball reflect off him into his own goal. And that’s definitely not a good starting point when you’re looking for a bet that offers value.

Having said that, you can gain access to statistics that show how frequently own goals happen across all soccer leagues. And that can prove to be a powerful tool when betting on own goals in soccer.

There are many different soccer leagues across the globe, each with its own defying characteristics, style of play, and other traits that make them stand out from the rest. But for the sake of this example, we will focus on one of the most popular soccer leagues – The Premier League.

Since the 2014/2015 season, about 8% of all Premier League games ended with an own goal. The highest percentage of own goals/game happened in 2015/16 when a total of 38 own goals have been scored over the season, resulting in a 10% rate.

The frequency of own goals has since been dropping; however, the average still stands firmly at around 8%.

Equipped with this knowledge, you would – in theory – be able to place a smart bet on a Premier League match ending with an own goal at odds higher than +1150 (12.5). However, this approach doesn’t take into account the teams and the players and only looks at the general average, which is a flawed way to approach betting on own goals.

Should I be Betting on Own Goals

Even though we have established how difficult it is to find an own goal bet worth taking, that definitely doesn’t mean that you can’t do it. As with any form of betting, you can find value bets if you have the needed knowledge about the game, players, and the teams.

If you can identify a player or a team that are more prone to making defensive mistakes and are at risk of scoring an own goal, placing a bet on the own goal market might not be a terrible idea. Although we’re still talking about a scenario where you’re betting on an outcome that is unlikely to occur, the generous betting odds make up for the low probability of it happening.

As with any other bet - doing the needed research to figure out which team/player is most likely to achieve a specific outcome will benefit your betting endeavor, no matter what type of bet you’re using.

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