For example, consider the assumption: The underdog always wins. NBA betting systems built on that assumption might instruct you to: Always bet on the underdog. Because we all know that such an assumption is flawed, we also know that betting according to that assumption isn’t likely to be very successful.
This is a key point to understand before we go any further. NBA betting systems are not magic wands that will somehow give you ultimate power over basketball games, or the ability to predict the future. Nor will they give you automatic access to the bank vaults of the online sportsbooks you tend to use. All that NBA betting systems can do is help you to identify opportunities and selections that fit particular patterns.
The Advantages of NBA Betting Systems
While NBA betting systems don’t offer a guaranteed route to basketball betting success, they can still be very useful. Some of the main advantages of NBA betting systems are as follows:
- NBA betting systems don’t have feelings or opinions. You can therefore use a system to pick selections based on rules, and your personal feelings and emotions won’t skew your approach.
- They encourage self-discipline. Following a betting system from week to week can help you to become a more disciplined, orderly, and rational bettor, which is always a good thing.
- Complexity is optional. While complicated NBA betting systems do exist, they aren’t necessarily any better than much simpler systems. In fact, they’re often worse because their complexity can make them impractical to use.
- NBA betting systems can be tested. You can test any system simply by keeping track of its selections and how they fare. That means you don’t have to bet any real cash until you are confident that a system is worth following.
The Disadvantages of NBA Betting Systems
We have said that NBA betting systems can be useful, but we should also point out that there are a couple of potential disadvantages to using them. Those are:
- You might be tempted to rely on them completely. While NBA betting systems can be great tools, they shouldn’t replace your own insight and common sense. Relying blindly on any betting system is never a good thing.
- Their efficacy isn’t fixed. Because a betting system is based on assumptions, any change in the effectiveness of those assumptions will change the effectiveness of the system itself. You should therefore be prepared to set aside a system if its performance deteriorates.
- Not all systems are equal. Literally, anyone can create a betting system, so their quality and value vary greatly. Be aware of this, and judge systems by their results rather than by their marketing hype.
The Blowout System
In the world of sport, a blowout refers to one team beating another with absolute ease. Think of Rafael Nadal beating an opponent 6-0, 6-0, 6-0, in a tennis match, or of Mike Tyson knocking out an opponent with a single punch in the first round of a boxing match.
Blowouts also happen in the NBA, in which case we're referring to victories by 10 points or more. However, what happens in the game that immediately follows a blowout is rather interesting.
You might think that the victorious team would follow up with another decisive win, but in many cases, they don't win as decisively as the majority of bettors expect. In fact, home favorites that are right off a 10- to 15-point win from a previous game are only able to beat the spread in the next game 42% of the time.
There are a handful of different things that could explain this particular drop-off in play. It could be that the previous blowout took a physical toll on the team, giving them less energy for the next game. Or maybe they go into the game following a blowout feeling overconfident. It could simply be that the online sportsbook set the spread too generously.
Whatever the reason, because we know that a team beats the spread only 42% of the time after a blowout, one systematic approach to consider is betting on the underdog in those situations. Of course, we don't suggest blindly betting the underdog, but if you like their form for its own sake and they're going up against a team that has just blown their opponents away, you might get some value in betting against the favorites.
The Bounce Back System
A similar but opposing pattern can often be observed in relation to teams that perform poorly on a given night. It's often the case that a team that performs poorly in one game will bounce back in great style soon after.
Of course, blindly betting on every team that performs poorly is just as bad as blindly betting on anything. Instead, look for poor performances that stand out as being particularly unusual. In other words, look for a poor performance from an otherwise good team, and not from teams that consistently play poorly.
You should look for teams that have good records and ended up shooting just under 40 percent on their previous game. Once they are back home, they typically outscore what is predicted of them 62 percent of the time.