The final weekend of the regular season is extra difficult to predict and that’s exactly why you need our Week 18 NFL picks by experts with proven track records of success. Motivation is the keyword here: some teams will go big in the last chance saloon for a playoff position or a division title, while others will rest players in the hope of securing higher draft picks. Then there’s the proverbial uncertainty surrounding all divisional games… Sportsbooks are in the dark too, but How To Bet’s experts are here to help you see the deeper layers and use the odds in your favor. They forecast matchups based on analysing advanced data, exploring relevant trends, and taking into account the latest and most important team news, topped off with their innate hunch for the game. This is the proven recipe for success with our NFL Week 18 predictions. And here’s the best part: you get them for free!
So do you see any justified reason not to choose our NFL Picks? All you need to do is to take just a couple of minutes to read them, place a wager and enjoy sports betting and, most of all, winning. Stop losing precious hours doing your own research for each game and looking around for the most attractive odds. Unglue yourself from the screen instead of waiting 24/7 for any breaking news that could endanger your wager. Quit taking harmful risks with your bets because of your team or player bias. Just leave it all to our experts – they’ve already done the job for you unearthing the hidden value on the odds market and offering you the NFL Week 18 best bets on a plate.
On this page you will also see the odds movement and the complete schedule of games with some quick picks after the selected ones. Let’s get straight to winning!
The Eagles are in a very strange situation. At 9-7 they are the last team in the NFC playoffs but have a guaranteed place unlike the team in front of them (San Francisco) that also owns the same record. It’s because of the tie breaks in case of a three teams tie with SF and New Orleans so Philly has almost nothing to play on Saturday. They can’t choose an opponent, they only know that in the event of a loss to the Cowboys they will be seeded seventh. And may face them twice in a span of a week!
Dallas suffered a huge setback last Sunday losing 25-22 to Arizona and dropped from second to fourth in the NFC standings. Their four-game winning streak was snapped and a day later another bad news followed – WR Michael Gallup has a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. The Cowboys also lost rookie sensation Micah Parsons who was placed on the COVID list but still can play on Saturday.
On the COVID front Philadelphia is facing a much bigger problem. As of Thursday 13 players are possibly out of the regular season finale. They are down to just one healthy RB, one healthy WR, three DB starters are also questionable as well as two LBs.
With all that in mind I can’t stay away from the Cowboys. They had their wake-up call against Arizona and should be among the good NFL Week 18 picks.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Cowboys -7 (-110)
Both teams are reeling after a disappointing Week 17. Denver (7-9) was officially eliminated from postseason contention after the 34-13 loss to LA Chargers. Two straight weeks with Drew Lock as a starting QB proved lethal for the Broncos who started 3-0 but endured two losing streaks of at least three games.
KC saw their eight-game winning streak snapped on a last-second FG in Cincinnati. The Chiefs blew a 14-point lead and not only lost 34-31 but surrendered the top spot in the AFC as well. At 11-5, because of the head-to-head tiebreak to Tennessee, they are about to lose the home field advantage and the bye week.
It’s hard to find a more one-sided rivalry in recent years than Broncos vs. Chiefs. KC won the last 12 games in a row, including a 22-9 meeting a month ago at Arrowhead. A meeting that was indicative for what followed in the Denver season. A week later they demolished Detroit but haven’t won since. Denver is facing some tough decisions at HC and QB and their offseason is going to be eventful.
Drew Lock will start once again for the Broncos which by itself should be enough for a KC win. The Chiefs are at full strength following the end of their own COVID outbreak and should have no problems stopping the one-dimensional Denver offense. I am a little uneasy with the double digit spread but the Broncos have scored 36 points combined the last three weeks and I can’t trust them to cover.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Chiefs -10 (-110)
Game #272 will decide the final playoff team in the AFC. There are scenarios where a tie will qualify both teams but this is a pure speculation and the odds of having such a scenario are astronomical. So the winner will take all in the Sunday Night showdown in Sin City.
Despite being a little short handed at LB the Raiders went to Indianapolis and stopped Colts’ three-game winning streak. Daniel Carlson’s 33-yard FG with 0:02 to go was decisive for the 23-20 outcome. It was Carlson’s fourth game winning kick of the season and he’s responsible for almost half of Raiders’ victories.
The Chargers trounced undermanned Denver 34-13 ending their playoff hopes. They played clean football, QB Justin Herbert finished 22-of-31 for 237 yards and two TDs, RB Austin Ekeler ran for 58 yards and a score in his return from the COVID list and the defense recovered a fumble. But the most important thing is that LA has nobody left on the virus list and will be at full strength against Las Vegas.
After a string of Sunday Night duds this should provide a lot of fireworks. LA was involved in a number of shootouts. They’ve scored 28 or more points in five straight games and there has been an average of 51.1 points per game in their 2021 contests. Las Vegas’ games have generated an average of 46.7 PPG but with all hands on deck the over looks as good as NFL Week 18 picks can be.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Over 49.5 (-110)
For most of the teams Week 18 is like unnecessary prolonging the season. For WFT all hopes officially ended last Sunday when they were shut out by the Eagles in the second half. Leading 16-7 at halftime they generated just 89 yards on offense after the break, 55 of them in the final drive. But their struggles are nothing compared to what Giants’ fans had to endure against Chicago.
NY ran 51 offensive plays. 40 of them were runs that netted 161 yards. The G-Men were down 14-0 midway through the first quarter yet before the break they threw just four passes. QB Mike Glennon finished the game with the disastrous line 4-of-11 for 24 yards and 2 INTs in what appears to be not only his final start of the season but his NFL career as well.
Who will start against WFT? It appears that Jake Fromm will get the nod backed up by God knows who. Fromm has appeared in two games this season and is 12-of-29 for 107 yards and an INT combined.
The Giants are going through the motions right now. WFT is on a four-game losing streak but appears way more interested in the outcome. This may look like a crapshoot but I think you can count on WFT in NFL Week 18 picks against the spread.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: WFT -7 (-110)
It’s plain and simple: the Saints win and they may get in. The Saints lose and their season is over. A flawed 8-8 team can get the final NFC spot ahead of San Francisco despite being just 24th on offense in DVOA? Well, it’s not their fault that the playoffs were expanded so mediocre teams can gain access way more frequently.
Speaking about mediocrity – Atlanta is probably the most overachieving team this season. According to DVOA the Falcons should’ve been 4-12. Instead they are 7-9 despite being 29th on offense and 30th on defense and were eliminated just last week from playoff contention following a 29-15 loss against the Bills.
New Orleans eked out an 18-10 win against Carolina in the last home game of the season and now must win on the road. The Saints are playing better away (5-3) than the Superdome (3-5) so this should be no problem. But how will they score? Despite RB Alvin Kamara’s return they went 11 quarters without scoring a TD before Kamara found the end zone with 7:55 to go against the Panthers.
Atlanta would love to spoil New Orleans’ season. Whether they succeed is yet to be seen. But this has all the makings of yet another defensive struggle. The under seems like a reasonable NFL Week 18 predictions as Atlanta have finished below 40 points in three of their last four home games and New Orleans hasn’t reached 40 in four straight and five of the last six.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Under 40.5 (-118)
The Bengals clinched their first AFC North division title in five years in dramatic fashion. They overcame a 14-points deficit twice and won 34-31 against the Chiefs on a last-second FG. And now they decided they don’t care whether they will face Buffalo, New England, Indianapolis or someone else. They are just happy to be in the tournament and will rest a lot of starters.
QB Joe Burrow will rest his ailing knee. RB Joe Mixon is on the COVID list alongside another six teammates (most of them starters) as the Bengals are dealing with a virus outbreak. Brandon Allen, who has thrown five passes this season, will get the start at QB while Samaje Perine (246 rushing yards in 2021) will be the featured back.
Cleveland (7-9) was eliminated from playoff contention last Sunday without even taking the field. A day later the Browns lost 26-14 to the Steelers and on Tuesday announced that QB Baker Mayfiled will undergo shoulder surgery ending his season. The methodical Case Keenum will start against Cincy and it probably means a lot of running plays, screen passes and eating a lot of the clock. Therefore – a limited number of drives and opportunities to score.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Under 38 (-110)
First let’s clarify what NFL expert picks are: selected betting predictions made by people with a particularly high level of knowledge and experience in uncovering the best bets in the league. Once you decide to go with them, you’ll get detailed and perfectly reasonable suggestions on how to bet on carefully picked games that give you the highest chance of winning. Then you will become part of a big army of punters that trusts these selected NFL Week 18 expert picks.
The option to bet on your own judgement over experts’ view is the other possible way. By going solo, you will be fully responsible for both winning and losing, so there will be no one else to blame in case of failing. After all, it’s your money at stake.
While this is a relevant point, there are still numerous reasons why the majority prefers expert picks and considers them to be the art form of NFL betting. Check the most important ones below.
Now that you have decided in favor of following the experts’ advice with their special selection of NFL Week 18 predictions, your next job is to know and understand the specifics of the betting markets. The three most popular among football betting enthusiasts are:
All three will most certainly be offered to you by every online sportsbook so let's look at each one of these markets and explain how they work. After that you will have a complete understanding of the matter and you’ll be 100% ready to explore the NFL Week 18 best bets.
People look for NFL picks Week 18 against the spread because the straight up odds for the two teams in a particular game may be quite differing in magnitude. By trying to even them up, all sportsbooks offer point spread markets that impose an artificial handicap on the team in the role of the favorite. The spreads give the underdog team an equal and opposing advantage, and consequently the odds available tend to be much more balanced. As a result, picks against the spread are in such demand. Check this example:
Here you see Seattle being given an advantage of +6.5 points, while the favorite Arizona have a handicap of -6.5 points. If you place a wager on the Cardinals, they will need to win by 7 points or more for you to succeed. Bet on the Seahawks and you will only lose if they lose by 7 points or more. With these conditions in place, the sportsbook is able to offer even odds for both teams (-110).
When turning to expert predictions, you will most probably run across NFL point spreads Week 18 edition. Just wager on the named team in the point spread market and you’ll have your winning bet served on a plate if the pick is correct.
The straight up or moneyline betting market is probably the simplest to understand. Here you will be offered odds about both of the teams involved in a NFL game and your only job is to place a wager on the team that you think will win. If your prediction is correct, your bet is a winning one and it will be settled at the odds you took. In a nutshell, when you see our NFL Week 18 picks straight up, you should be able to bet on them easily. See the following example:
Let’s say you fancy Pittsburgh to win the NFL game against the favorite Baltimore. You could bet on the Steelers at odds of +155 and a stake of $100 would therefore give you a profit of $155 if they succeed. Conversely, you have to wager $180 on the Ravens and they have to win the game for your profit to be $100. This is as straightforward an example as you would find – now you should be ready to take advantage of our NFL Week 18 picks straight up.
As this is the third main betting market, you will undoubtedly find many sources for NFL Week 18 predictions over/under. Here you only have one job: to predict whether the total number of points scored in the game by both teams combined will be Over or Under a total figure quoted by the sportsbook. Unsurprisingly, that’s why this is also known as the Totals market. Take a look at the following example and you will surely get a grasp of the concept:
|Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings||Over 44.5/Under 44.5||-110/-110|
The good news is that over/under betting is just as simple as moneyline betting. (Especially if you have access to free NFL expert picks for Week 18 to help guide you through the process.) In our example, all you have to do is decide whether you think there will be over or under 44.5 points scored in the game by both teams combined. If you go for Over, there would need to be 45 points or more for your wager to succeed. Go for Under and there would need to be 44 points or fewer for your bet to win.
Did you understand the concept? If the answer is ‘yes’, check out our free expert picks above, find the best bets available for NFL Week 18 point totals and place a wager.
Check out the success rates of the NFL predictions provided by our experts and see what lies ahead in the future.
These are the expert’s betting choices for a NFL game and are based on hours and hours of research. You can either choose to follow these predictions or trust your own judgement.
There are many places where you can find NFL expert picks for Week 18. Not all experts are equal though, and most will charge you money to receive their predictions. The Week 18 NFL picks here at How To Bet are provided by some of the best specialists we’ve found in our extensive search. And the icing on the cake is that you can benefit from them completely for free.
In order to benefit from the NFL Week 18 best bets on the market, you need to do lots of research. You must check stats, injury lists, coach changes, weather forecast, and anything else that could affect the game. Most of all, you need to be able to analyse this information properly and also to read the game before all the action unfolds.
You can also follow expert NFL picks from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl. And it’s totally free here at How To Bet!
ESPN and CBS are regarded as the top of the pops for NFL picks among the big media outlets. But don’t hesitate to check How To Bet’s picks too. We have a great winning percentage that equals and many times even betters the success rates of some of the most popular experts.
Our Week 18 NFL picks are expert predictions based on solid data and analysis, but they are still only predictions. There is no guarantee that NFL picks from any source will win, and form upsets can occur at any point during the season. The only guarantee is that the expert picks have a much higher chance of winning because of the amount of work, knowledge, experience and advanced data access these specialists have. So always obey the golden rule of betting and never wager more than you can afford to lose in a worst-case scenario.
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