The penultimate weekend of the regular season gives us games with playoff and division title implications, while for some of the teams there’s zero motivation, which makes our Week 17 NFL picks a much needed reading. How To Bet’s experts will get you out of the woods. They forecast matchups based on analysing advanced data, exploring relevant trends, and taking into account the latest and most important team news, topped off with their innate hunch for the game. By now you should probably know that this is the proven recipe for success with our NFL Week 17 predictions. And you get them for free!
All you need to do is to take just a couple of minutes to read our NFL Picks, place a wager and enjoy sports betting and, most of all, winning. Don’t lose precious hours doing your own research for each game and looking around for the most attractive odds. Unglue yourself away from the screen and don’t wait 24/7 for any breaking news that could endanger your wager. Stop risking your bets because of your team or player bias. Just leave it all to our experts – they’ve already done the job for you unearthing the hidden value on the odds market and offering you the NFL Week 17 best bets on a plate.
On this page you will also see the odds movement and the complete schedule of games with some quick picks after the selected ones. Let’s get straight to winning!
It was anticipated for months but it became official only a couple of days ago: MNF will be Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game. Spending 18 years with one team is a remarkable accomplishment. Very few players get to experience that. Not that Steelers fans didn't understand the situation before Roethlisberger met the media on Thursday, but now it feels a little more real.
At 7-7-1 the Steelers are 11th in the AFC and need to move ahead of at least four teams in the last two weeks of the regular season to get into the playoffs. They close with a road game in Baltimore next weekend but to have a shot at the postseason they need to beat the Browns.
Cleveland (7-8) has lost its last two games and three of the last four. But if there’s one thing they do well – it’s running the football. Advanced metrics put the Browns rush attack second in the league, trailing only the Colts. And it should cause a lot of problems to the Steelers as their run defense is at #30 in DVOA.
The Steelers placed DL Chris Wormley and LB Joe Schobert, both starters, on the Reserve/COVID-19 list Friday afternoon. That means they’re most likely out for Monday’s game against the run-heavy Browns. The Steelers currently have seven players on the active roster on the COVID-19 list, including five on defense and two along the defensive line, Wormley and Isaiah Buggs. DL Daniel Archibong also landed on the practice squad COVID-19 list on Friday.
It’s easy to see why the Browns were installed as favorites in almost all NFL Week 17 predictions. But they were such on October 31st and lost 10-15 after being held to just 96 yards on the ground. In an emotional evening like this it will be hard for Cleveland to run away with the win. They should be victorious but by how many points?
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Steelers +3.5 (-112)
It’s January and it’s time for the coldest NFL game of the season. The forecast at the start of the game calls for a 5 degree temperature. It will be cold, it will be crisp and Vikings’ playoff hopes may very well freeze in the Lambeau Field tundra.
Minnesota (7-8) is on the outside looking in and needs a lot of help to get into the NFC playoffs. The Vikings didn’t capitalize on QB Matt Stafford’s three interceptions last Sunday and lost 23-30 to the LA Rams. In the absence of RB Dalvin Cook they rushed for just 66 yards. The defense could not stop WR Cooper Kupp who torched them for 109 yards on 10 catches. And this week they will have to find a solution against the probable MVP Aaron Rodgers!
The Packers (12-3) are on the driving seat for home field advantage in the NFC. They may lock it as early as Sunday but if they don’t, the visit to the Lions in Week 18 should be no problem. Green Bay is on a four-game winning streak although they needed a lot of help from the zebras to knock down the Browns (24-22). CB Rasul Douglas recorded yet another decisive interception but the offense stalled in the second half scoring just three points. Rodgers continues through a broken toe and the lack of mobility is making the Packers more or less one dimensional.
In each of head coach Matt LaFleur’s three seasons the team has won at least 12 games. What happens in the playoffs is another thing but now it’s time to secure the top spot in the conference. The Packers lost to their arch rivals 28-22 a year ago. You must go all the way back to 2005-06 to find back-to-back wins for the visitors. I don’t see the Vikings capable of causing an upset but they should at least make this game close. However…
On Friday night one of the most prominent anti vaxxers, QB Kirk Cousins, was tested positive for COVID. The Vikings are toast. Sean Mannion will start on short notice so feel free to bet against Minnesota but remember: head coach Mike Zimmer always has a good plan against Aaron Rodgers.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Vikings +7 (-114)
The free fall of the Cardinals goes on and on and on. After being 10-2 and on the verge of the NFC West title Arizona lost three in a row and is trailing the Rams by a game. Even with the 16-22 loss to the Colts they still made the playoffs but the home game in the Wild Card round may not happen after all.
At the same time the Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFC. They are tied for the longest winning streak in the conference and have not lost since Thanksgiving. A week ago Dallas set a franchise record for points against the WFT winning 56-14. The defense forced two turnovers and the special teams blocked a punt for a TD. It was the most complete performance of the season for the Cowboys and many see them as a potential Super Bowl champion. But first things first.
Dallas is still in the hunt for a home field advantage but they also may fall to as low as #4 in the seeds with a loss on Sunday. Their OL took a hit on Monday as Aviante Collins and Isaac Alarcon were placed on the COVID list. T Tyron Smith is still out with a knee injury which presents head coach Mike McCarthy with some tough decisions.
However this is nothing compared to the COVID situation by the Cardinals. On Monday they lost two DBs and two starting LBs to the virus list. WR DeAndre Hopkins is out until the end of the regular season and RBs James Conner and Chase Edmonds are banged up. It’s no wonder that the Cardinals’ offense tumbled all the way down to #16 in DVOA so good luck facing the top rated defensive unit in the country.
Dallas is one of the best ATS teams this season. In each of their last four wins they’ve covered. And I think that there’s no huge risk backing them with your NFL Week 17 picks against the spread.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Cowboys -5.5 (-118)
The Niners are in a very precarious position. They are sixth in the NFC with an 8-7 record and hold the tiebreaker against almost every opponent. But in case of a three way tie with Philadelphia and New Orleans they will be the odd team out. So basically to enter the postseason San Francisco has to win both of its remaining games.
Things could’ve been much easier for the Niners. They squandered a 10-point lead against the Titans losing 17-20 on a last second FG. In the process QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a thumb sprain and a bone fracture and could miss out the remainder of the season. It’s still unclear how severe his injuries are but it looks more and more likely that rookie Trey Lance will make his just second career start. But for those who think the Niners are doomed it’s worth reminding that this is a run-first team that is fifth on the ground according to DVOA and is facing the seventh-worst rushing defense in the league.
Houston is still in a COVID outbreak. As of Thursday they have 12 players on the virus list. But even with a depleted squad they were still too good for the Chargers beating them 40-29 for a rare two-game winning streak. This will certainly cost them the top pick in next year’s draft but the momentum seems more important.
The Niners should get RB Elijah Mitchell back this week after a three-game absence. With him in the backfield Houston will have a hard time stopping the run. The line opened at -15.5 but dropped fast after the Garoppolo injury news. As the Texans are not a team that throws much I don’t think they can exploit the weakness of the Niners secondary. They just don’t match well and should be no problem even for a rookie QB.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: 49ers -12.5 (-106)
The calculation is simple: a win gives the Bengals their first AFC North division title in 15 years. At 9-6 they leapfrogged Baltimore after the demolishing 41-21. QB Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards, 4 TDs and a rating of 143.2 rewriting the record books. It’s a fact that the Ravens were hit hard by COVID but it can’t take anything away from the Bengals’ performance.
However the road gets only tougher for Cincinnati. The Chiefs are holding the longest current winning streak in the league. KC has won eight in a row and as of today is the top seed in the AFC. A week ago they shut down the Steelers in the first half on the way to a 36-10 win. They were crowned AFC West champions even before taking the field but showed no mercy. QB Patrick Mahomes finished 23-of-30 for 258 yards, 3 TDs and a 135.1 rating. What’s more impressive he did it without TE Travis Kelce who missed the game due to COVID. He is now back and Mahomes will have his favorite weapon back.
Veteran safety Tyrann Mathieu is the only noticeable name on the KC injury report. Cincinnati placed a couple of dozen backups on the virus list but both teams should be close to full strength. The Chiefs look like the clear favorite but in my NFL Week 17 predictions I don’t see them winning by that much as the line suggests.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Bengals +5 (-110)
Let’s begin our answer with a clarification on what NFL expert picks are: selected betting predictions made by people with a particularly high level of knowledge and experience in uncovering the best bets in the league. Trust them and you’ll get perfectly reasonable suggestions on how to bet on carefully picked games that give you the highest chance of winning. You will also join a big army of punters that look for these selected NFL expert picks Week 17 has on offer.
There is, of course, the possibility to trust your own judgment over experts’ view. This way you will be fully responsible for both winning and losing, so there will be no one else to blame in case of failing.
While this is a relevant point, there are still numerous reasons why the majority prefers expert picks and considers them to be the art form of NFL betting. Here are the most important ones.
So you have decided in favor of following the experts’ advice with their special selection of NFL Week 17 predictions. Then your next job is to know and understand the specifics of the betting markets. The three most popular among football betting enthusiasts are:
All three will for sure be offered to you by every online sportsbook. Therefore, let's look at each one and explain how they work. After that you will have a complete understanding of the matter and you’ll be 100% ready to explore the NFL Week 17 best bets.
The straight up or moneyline betting market is probably the simplest to understand. Here you will be offered odds about both of the teams involved in a NFL game and your only job is to place a wager on the team that you think will win. If your prediction is correct, your bet is a winning one and it will be settled at the odds you took. In a nutshell, when you see our NFL picks Week 17 straight up, you should be able to bet on them easily. See the following example:
Let’s say you fancy the Miami Dolphins to win the NFL game against the favorite Tennessee Titans. You could bet on the Dolphins at odds of +142 and a stake of $100 would therefore give you a profit of $142 if they succeed. Conversely, you have to wager $168 on Tennessee and the Titans have to win the game for your profit to be $100. This is as straightforward an example as you would find – now you should be ready to take advantage of our NFL picks Week 17 straight up.
People look for NFL Week 17 picks against the spread because the straight up odds for the two teams in a particular game may be quite differing in magnitude. By trying to even them up, all sportsbooks offer point spread markets that impose an artificial handicap on the team in the role of the favorite. The spreads give the underdog team an equal and opposing advantage, and consequently the odds available tend to be much more balanced. As a result, picks against the spread are in such demand. Check this example:
|Green Bay Packers||-6.5||-110|
Here you see Minnesota being given an advantage of +6.5 points, while the favorite Green Bay have a handicap of -6.5 points. If you place a wager on the Packers, they will need to win by 7 points or more for you to succeed. Bet on the Vikings and you will only lose if they lose by 7 points or more. With these conditions in place, the sportsbook is able to offer even odds for both teams (-110).
When turning to expert predictions, you will most probably run across NFL Week 17 picks against the spread. Just wager on the named team in the point spread market and you’ll have your winning bet served on a plate if the pick is correct.
As this is the third main betting market, you will undoubtedly find many sources for NFL Week 17 predictions over/under. Here you only have one job: to predict whether the total number of points scored in the game by both teams combined will be Over or Under a total figure quoted by the sportsbook. Unsurprisingly, that’s why this is also known as the Totals market. Take a look at the following example and you will surely get a grasp of the concept:
|New York Giants @ Chicago Bears||Over 37.5/Under 37.5||-110/-110|
The good news is that over/under betting is just as simple as moneyline betting. (Especially if you have access to free NFL expert picks for Week 17 to help guide you through the process.) In our example, all you have to do is decide whether you think there will be over or under 37.5 points scored in the game by both teams combined. If you go for Over, there would need to be 38 points or more for your wager to succeed. Go for Under and there would need to be 37 points or fewer for your bet to win.
Did you understand the concept? If the answer is ‘yes’, check out our free expert picks above, find the best bets available for NFL Week 17 point totals and place a wager.
Check out the success rate of the NFL predictions provided by our experts and see what lies ahead in the future.
These are the expert’s betting choices for a NFL game and are based on hours and hours of research. You can either choose to follow these predictions or trust your own judgement.
There are many places where you can find NFL expert picks for Week 17. Not all experts are equal though, and most will charge you money to receive their predictions. The Week 17 NFL picks here at How To Bet are provided by some of the best specialists we’ve found in our extensive search. And the icing on the cake is that you can benefit from them completely for free.
In order to benefit from the NFL Week 17 best bets on the market, you need to do lots of research. You must check stats, injury lists, coach changes, weather forecast, and anything else that could affect the game. Most of all, you need to be able to analyse this information properly and also to read the game before all the action unfolds.
You can also follow expert NFL picks from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl. And it’s totally free here at How To Bet!
ESPN and CBS are regarded as the top of the pops for NFL picks among the big media outlets. But don’t hesitate to check How To Bet’s picks too. We have a great winning percentage that equals and many times even betters the success rates of some of the most popular experts.
Our Week 17 NFL picks are expert predictions based on solid data and analysis, but they are still only predictions. There is no guarantee that NFL picks from any source will win, and form upsets can occur at any point during the season. The only guarantee is that the expert picks have a much higher chance of winning because of the amount of work, knowledge, experience and advanced data access these specialists have. So always obey the golden rule of betting and never wager more than you can afford to lose in a worst-case scenario.
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