Thanksgiving Day is over, December is here and the playoff picture is becoming a bit more clearer, so it’s time for our winning Week 13 NFL picks. How To Bet’s experts forecast matchups based on analysing advanced data, exploring relevant trends, and taking into account the latest and most important team news. It’s all topped off with their innate hunch for the game and figuring out each team’s motivation for the ending part of the regular season. This recipe delivers success time after time, plus you get all the goods for free! So do you see any reason not to take a punt on our selected NFL Week 13 predictions?
Just give a couple of minutes to read our NFL Picks, place a wager and enjoy the multiple benefits of free expert tips. Don’t throw away precious hours doing your own research for each game and looking around for the most appealing odds. Reduce screen time by not waiting 24/7 for any breaking news that could potentially endanger your bet. Leave behind the sports fan bias blurring your vision. Our experts have already done the job for you by unearthing the hidden value on the odds market and offering you the NFL Week 13 best bets on a plate.
On this page you will also see the odds movement and the complete schedule of games with some quick picks after the selected ones. Ready? Let’s get straight to winning!
Christmas came early! Finally, a Monday Night Football game with actual playoff implications! The grand prize is top spot in the AFC East standings and maybe the whole AFC. New England on a six-game winning streak, unbeaten away from home. Buffalo looking to finally get out of the shadow after two decades of total Patriots’ division domination.
Few envisioned Patriots’ to get so good so fast, especially with a rookie QB. To be honest, Mac Jones hasn’t shown anything special. He’s 10th in yards passed, 15th in YPG, 11th in yards per attempt, 15th in TDs thrown and just 12 QBs have fewer INTs than him. But apart from the Saints game back in September, he hadn’t made bonehead decisions. Jones has been riding the success of the Patriots’ run offense. And when it struggles, New England usually loses. It happened against the Saints, it happened against the Buccaneers, it happened against the Cowboys. And now it’s time for the former Alabama QB to face the Bills who are fourth against the run in advanced metrics and own the #1 defense in terms of DVOA.
Buffalo were torched for 185 yards and 4 TDs by RB Jonathan Taylor two weeks ago but quickly turned the things around. Just four days later they stuffed the Saints for just 44 yards on the ground on the way to a 31-6 win. Conventional metrics put the Bills second in points per game allowed, 6th in rush yards allowed, second in pass yards allowed and third in INTs (with a game less played than the teams in front of them). And on Monday they will have the typical December weather at their disposal.
The forecast calls for 30 degrees temperature and a strong wind with gusts of over 30 mph. And while Bills QB Josh Allen played his college career in Wyoming and is accustomed to such conditions, Jones, being raised in Florida and having played college football in Alabama and the deep South, is definitely not.
In the Tom Brady era New England had a 34-4 record against the Bills. But the tide started to turn last year. Buffalo won 24-21 and 38-9 on the road to the division title and AFC Championship Game appearance. They have been waiting too long for an opportunity to play on the national stage.
Naturally, the Patriots have got most of the bets (81%) since the line has been posted. Everybody is going with the hot hand but the 2021 NFL season taught us one important lesson: the team that starts to get the majority of bets for a Super Bowl champion, suddenly suffers a drop in form and results. It happened with the Chiefs, it happened with the Bucs, it happened with Bills, it happened with the Titans. Now it’s time for New England to fall victim of the curse. Therefore I will back the Bills in my NFL Week 12 predictions.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Bills Money Line (-141)
The substitute game for this week’s SNF may very well end being a no contest. The Chiefs are on a 11-game winning streak against Denver but at least on paper there’s some intrigue. Whoever wins goes top of the AFC West and there’s also a distinct possibility all four teams in the division will be tied with an identical 7-5 record!
The Chiefs (7-4) are coming off a bye week and are on a four-game winning streak. There’s one eye popping stat in such circumstances: In his 22 years as an NFL head coach, Reid's teams are 19-3 coming off a regular season bye. And with Reid and Mahomes in Kansas City, the team is 7-1 after a bye.
Case closed, right? And you’re ready with your NFL Week 13 picks? You probably should be. Before the bye the Chiefs were winning both with offense (41-14 against Las Vegas) and defense (13-7 against Green Bay, 19-9 against Dallas). They are healthy with OL Lucas Niang (ribs) the only significant name on the injury report but he played through the pain for the last couple of weeks.
In a conference, in which nobody is getting the grip on the top spot, the Chiefs are primed for a December run towards home-field advantage.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Chiefs -9 (-111)
This game was scheduled for Sunday Night Football but got flexed out a week ago. Make no mistake, that’s not because of the Niners. San Francisco is on a three-game winning streak and at 6-5 they sit sixth in the NFC standings. It’s because of the Seahawks. An uninspiring, awfully bad and pretty much hopeless 3-8 team that is on a three-game losing streak.
The Seahawks have no running game. They pretty much abandoned throwing to WR D.K. Metcalf (8 receptions for 70 yards since the bye week) and QB Russell Wilson, who was rushed back to save the season, is extremely inaccurate. Since his return from a finger surgery he’s 54-of-97 combined for 615 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs and almost all of his production came on two drives against Washington on Monday. Wilson has no protection from the constantly banged-up OL and the burning question is: Is he ready to risk getting injured in the meaningless games that remain which can cost him millions in his next contract?
The consensus NFL Week 13 expert picks are for a Niners win. But the visitors will be without their main offensive weapon, WR Deebo Samuel, who suffered a groin injury in the final minutes of the 34-26 win over the Vikings. The Niners are also a little thin at LBs with Fred Warner already declared out and Dre Greenlaw questionable. Plus, head coach Kyle Shanahan is 2-5 against Seattle for whom this is the game of the season. Therefore I recommend a little caution but still back the Niners.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: 49ers Money Line (-169)
Both teams had emotional wins last week in front of a national audience. The Raiders beat Dallas in a Thanksgiving Day overtime thriller while WFT, despite being without a kicker in the second half, survived against Seattle to move to 5-6 and into last playoff spot in the NFC.
But the win came with a hefty price. RB J.D. McKissic suffered a concussion in the process of scoring his second TD of the game and is being monitored. He hasn’t practiced this week and his status for Sunday is up in the air. WTF offensive line also took a hit with center Tyler Larson and guards Wes Schweitzer and Ereck Flowers unable to join any of this week’s practices while All-Pro Brandon Scherff is listed as limited. Safety Landon Collins is also questionable for the trip to Sin City with a foot injury.
If Collins is unavailable, WFT will face huge problems covering WR DeSean Jackson. The wideout, who turned 35 on Wednesday, caught three passes for 102 yards and a TD in the win over Cowboys and emerged as a serious deep threat alongside Hunter Renfroe. Jackson was sidelined this week with a calf ailment but according to him “there’s nothing serious”. TE Brandon Waller and DE Carl Nassib are the other notable names on the injury report although the latter one is not news after he already sat out three games this season.
Playing without McKissic would be a tough task for WFT. They have no other back with his catching abilities. WFT got all the love this week but Las Vegas will be a tough place to prolong their three-game winning streak.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Raiders -1 (-115)
It looks strange but the Dolphins currently own the second longest winning streak in the NFL. They have won four in a row and only the Patriots (six) are ahead of them. Thus, Miami went from a bottom feeder to a fringe playoff contender.
The Dolphins have two prestigious wins so far: Week 1 against the Patriots and Week 10 at home to Baltimore. It’s not their fault that the schedule gives them one bad team after another but at least they are taking care of their own business. And with Jets and Saints coming after the bye week it’s not a crazy scenario to see them knocking on the Wild Card door at the turn of 2022.
Despite having a worse record than their opponents, NY Giants (4-7) are just a game outside the playoffs in the murky NFC. The G-Men slowed down the Eagles in a 13-7 defensive struggle, picking off QB Jalen Hurts three times and recovering a fumble late in the fourth quarter. The news of QB Daniel Jones’ neck injury, however, is concerning. Head coach Joe Judge proclaimed him good to go on Sunday but backup Matt Glennon is on standby ready for his second appearance of the season.
The line has been jumping up and down since Tuesday. If you are interested in this game, bet it as a NFL Week 13 picks straight up. And go with the hot team.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Dolphins Money Line (-192)
The first TNF edition of December will be very strange. First, it’s the second week in a row the Saints are featured as a home team. And second, it will mark Cowboys’ second TNF appearance and their third Thursday game of the season – something that never happened in the century-long NFL history.
Both teams are coming off Thanksgiving Day losses. Dallas were beaten 36-33 by Las Vegas in a wild overtime shootout that prompted owner Jerry Jones to question officiating after his team was penalized 14 times for 166 yards. In the nightcap New Orleans was dismantled 31-6 by Buffalo to slip out of the NFC Wild Card places.
The loss, fourth in a row, is expected to mark the end of the “Trevor Siemian” experiment. The offense led Northwestern product was shut out for three quarters until a TD pass to Nick Vannett. The Saints generated just 190 yards on offense and the news broke out on Monday that Taysom Hill will probably get the start at QB. But the more important news was that RB Alvin Kamara is back at practice after missing the last three weeks with a knee injury.
On the other side, Dallas was hit by COVID-19 and head coach Mike McCarthy won’t be around this week. DC Dan Quinn will replace him on Thursday. It’s still unclear how many assistant coaches will be out as well and their absence was felt during the Las Vegas game, especially on the offensive line. WR CeeDee Lamb should be back but WR Amari Cooper is still on the COVID-19 protocol and his participation is unknown. WR Cedrick Wilson is also questionable with an ankle injury. On defense DT Trysten Hill is suspended after throwing punches after the Las Vegas game.
Dallas leads the all-time series 17-13 but the Saints are 6-1 in the Big Easy in the last quarter of a century. New Orleans will have a different look with Hill under center and the Cowboys will have to account for his mobility. I’m not sure the Saints will end their losing streak but they should be way more competent than the previous four weeks. And with the coaching uncertainty in Dallas I see them being among the best NFL Week 13 picks against the spread. After all the Cowboys started the season 7-0 ATS but since then are 1-3.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Saints +4.5 (-109)
The first thing we have to make clear here is that NFL expert picks are selected betting predictions made by people with a particularly high level of knowledge and experience in uncovering the best bets in the league. The people who trust them get perfectly reasonable suggestions on how to bet on carefully picked games that give you the highest chance of winning. Do the same and you will join the huge army of punters that follow these select NFL expert picks Week 13 has on offer.
You could, of course, trust your own judgement when betting and you’d have a strong case for doing so. This way you are fully responsible for both winning and losing, so you won't harbour a grudge against others when failing. But there are so many reasons why the majority considers expert picks to be the art form of NFL betting and prefers them. See the most important ones here.
In case you have decided in favor of following the experts’ advice with their special selection of NFL Week 13 predictions, your next job is to know and understand the specifics of the betting markets. Here is a shortlist of the three most popular among football betting enthusiasts:
All three will be offered to you by every online sportsbook, so let's have a look at each one and explain how they work. After that you’ll have a complete understanding of the matter and you’ll be 100% ready to explore the NFL Week 13 best bets.
The straight up or moneyline betting market is probably the simplest to understand. Here you will be offered odds about both of the teams involved in a NFL game and your only job is to wager on the team that you think will win. If your prediction is correct, your bet is a winning one and it will be settled at the odds you took. In short, when you see our NFL Week 13 picks straight up, you should be able to bet on them easily. Check the following example:
|Los Angeles Rams||-650|
So let’s say you fancy Jacksonville to win the NFL game against the heavy favorite Los Angeles Rams. You could bet on the Jaguars at odds of +460 and a stake of $100 would therefore give you a profit of $460 if they succeed. On the other hand, you have to wager $650 on Los Angeles and the Rams have to win the game for your profit to be $100. This is as straightforward an example as you would find and now you should be ready to take advantage of our NFL Week 13 picks straight up.
The reason why people look for NFL Week 13 picks against the spread is because the odds for the two teams in a particular game can be quite different. By trying to even them up, all sportsbooks offer point spread markets that impose an artificial handicap on the team in the role of the favorite. The spreads give the underdog team an equal and opposing advantage, and consequently the odds available tend to be much more balanced. Because of that, picks against the spread are in such demand. See this example:
|Washington Football Team||+2.5||-110|
|Las Vegas Raiders||-2.5||-110|
Here you see Washington being given an advantage of +2.5 points, while the favorite Las Vegas have a handicap of -2.5 points. If you place a wager on Las Vegas, the Raiders will need to win by 3 points or more for you to succeed. Bet on Washington and you will only lose if they lose by 3 points or more. With these conditions in place, the sportsbook is able to offer even odds for both teams.
When turning to expert predictions, you will surely run across NFL Week 13 picks against the spread. Just wager on the named team in the point spread market and you’ll have your winning bet served on a plate if the pick is correct.
This is the third main betting market, so you will undoubtedly find many sources for NFL Week 13 over / under predictions. Here you only have one job: to predict whether the total number of points scored in the game by both teams combined will be Over or Under a total figure quoted by the sportsbook. Logically, that’s why this is also known as the Totals market. See the following example and you will get a grasp of the concept:
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons||Over 50.5/Under 50.5||-110/-110|
The good news is that over/under betting is just as simple as moneyline betting. (Especially if you have access to free NFL expert picks for Week 13 to help guide you through the process.) In our example, all you have to do is decide whether you think there will be over or under 50.5 points scored in the game by both teams combined. If you go for Over, there would need to be 51 points or more for your wager to succeed. Go for Under and there would need to be 50 points or fewer for your bet to win.
You got it now? If the answer is ‘yes’, check out our free expert picks above, find the best bets available for NFL Week 13 point totals and place a wager.
Check out the success rate of the NFL predictions provided by our experts and see what lies ahead in the future.
These are the expert’s betting choices for a NFL game and are based on hours and hours of research. You can either choose to follow these predictions or trust your own judgement.
There are many places where you can find NFL expert picks for Week 13. Not all experts are equal though, and most will charge you money to receive their predictions. The Week 13 NFL picks here at How To Bet are provided by some of the best specialists we’ve found in our extensive search. And the icing on the cake is that you can benefit from them completely for free.
In order to benefit from the NFL Week 13 best bets on the market, you need to do lots of research. You must check stats, injury lists, coach changes, weather forecast, and anything else that could affect the game. Most of all, you need to be able to analyse this information properly and also to read the game before all the action unfolds.
You can also follow expert NFL picks from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl. And it’s totally free here at How To Bet!
ESPN and CBS are regarded as the top of the pops for NFL picks among the big media outlets. But don’t hesitate to check How To Bet’s picks too. We have a great winning percentage that equals and many times even betters the success rates of some of the most popular experts.
Our Week 13 NFL picks are expert predictions based on solid data and analysis, but they are still only predictions. There is no guarantee that NFL picks from any source will win, and form upsets can occur at any point during the season. The only guarantee is that the expert picks have a much higher chance of winning because of the amount of work, knowledge, experience and advanced data access these specialists have. So always obey the golden rule of betting and never wager more than you can afford to lose in a worst-case scenario.
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