With only three weeks left in the regular season, the battle for the playoff spots promises matchups that are difficult to predict and our NFL Week 15 picks are here to help you out. How To Bet’s experts forecast matchups based on analysing advanced data, exploring relevant trends, and taking into account the latest and most important team news, topped off with their innate hunch for the game. As you probably know by now, this is the proven recipe for success with our NFL Week 15 predictions. And you get them for free!
There are multiple benefits of trusting free expert tips and all you need is to take a couple of minutes to read our NFL Picks, place a wager and enjoy. No more losing precious hours doing your own research for each game and looking around for the most attractive odds. Stay away from the screen and don’t wait 24/7 for any breaking news that could endanger your bet. Stop betting risky because of your team or player bias. Just leave it all to our experts who’ve already done the job for you unearthing the hidden value on the odds market and offering you the NFL Week 15 best bets on a plate.
On this page you will also see the odds movement and the complete schedule of games (we have Saturday action this week for a change) with some quick picks after the selected ones. Let’s get straight to winning!
As COVID wreaks havoc across the NFL Week 15 schedule, Minnesota and Chicago are getting ready for a MNF matchup that has playoff implication only for the visitors. The Vikings (6-7) are the first team in NFC outside the playoffs while the Bears (4-9) are basically auditioning for next season. So, this will be an easy Vikings win, right? Well, not so fast!
Every Superman has its kryptonite. And for Minnesota it’s playing at Soldier Field. The Vikings are 4-16 in the Windy City this century and none of those four wins was by a more than one possession. Last year in front of empty stands Minnesota won 19-13. The other wins came in 2017 (20-17), 2015 (23-20) and 2007 (34-31). And on Monday the Vikings will be in search of their first back-to-back victories since 1996-200 without WR Adam Thielen (ankle), WR and punt returner Dede Westbrook (COVID) and RB Alexander Mattison (COVID).
Speaking of COVID, Chicago has 13 players placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The latest additions were QB Andy Dalton, WR Allen Robinson, S Eddie Jackson and NT Eddie Goldman. All three coordinators were put on the list as well and even with the relaxed rules coming into effect on Monday, they may still be unable to return to the sideline. At least backup OL Elijah Wilkinson will be back on the field which in light of starting LT Jason Peters nursing an ankle injury looks like blessing in disguise.
If you’re not forced to bet on this game, my advice is to look elsewhere for NFL Week 15 picks. I would recommend backing the Bears to cover the spread as the Vikings have a knack of playing close games week after week.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Bears +6 (-105)
The second to last TNF edition should be dandy. Kansas City (9-4) is on a six-game winning streak and could finish the day as the top seed team in the AFC with a win. Should they lose, the LA Chargers will knock them off the top in the AFC West.
KC will be playing away for the first time in a month. They had three straight games at Arrowhead sandwiching a bye week. At home the Chiefs are 6-2 with losses against Buffalo and the Chargers while they’ve won 3 out of 5 visiting. And for LA the home is not a fortress for a variety of reasons. The main one is that they are yet to establish a real fan base in their new home city and usually travelling fans are taking over SoFi Stadium. Therefore the home field advantage is nonexistent.
KC will be without WR Josh Gordon who was tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday. CB L’Jarius Snead, who missed Sunday’s win over the Raiders after the death of his brother, will be back as will OL Lucas Niang.
There are far more serious injury concerns for LA. LT Rashawn Slater is out because of COVID-19. TEs Jared Cook and Donald Parham are questionable as are DLs Justin Jones and Linval Joseph. Rookie CB Asante Samuel Jr. is still in concussion protocol while safeties Derwin James and Alohi Gillman are injured as well. But the two most important injuries are RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) and WR Mike Williams (heel) who were added to the injury report on Monday.
Since Andy Reid joined the Chiefs they have lost just once away to the Chargers and it was back in his debut season in 2013. On a seven-game winning streak I’ll bet KC to prolong it and make a big step towards home field advantage in the playoffs.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Chiefs Money Line (-192)
In a special Saturday Night Football edition the 7-6 Colts host the AFC leaders New England Patriots (9-4) in a game that may very well decide both teams’ playoff destiny. Indianapolis won four of their last five games to climb up to #6 in the AFC standings. While the Patriots own the longest current winning streak in the league with seven consecutive victories.
Both teams are coming off historic bye weeks as these were the latest byes ever. Before that the Patriots were involved in one of the windiest games in the NFL history, beating Buffalo 14-10. The most remarkable stat from last Monday was the three passes thrown by QB Mac Jones and that was a clear demonstration of the “trust” the coaching staff has in him. And if the running game was functioning well against the Bills, for some reasons the Colts have absurdly high success against opponents’ ground attack this season.
For a long time Indianapolis was leading the DVOA stats, mostly because of the lack of rushing TDs. They came back a little recently but still have a Top 5 unit. And they are back to full health as LB Bobby Okereke (illness) is the only one to miss practice this week. Even G Quenton Nelson is back after nursing knee and ankle injuries.
The only question regarding the Colts is which version of QB Carson Wentz will show up on Saturday? He has a QBR of 90 or more in Colts’ wins but 75% of his turnovers have come in Indy’s losses. If he plays clean the Colts have a big chance to knock off the AFC East leaders. Anyhow, the Patriots are primed for a loss as they rode their luck way too long.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Colts Money Line (-133)
The Sports Broadcasting Act from 1961 prohibits NFL games to be scheduled on Saturday until the completion of the NCAA regular season. But once it’s over it’s time for a special Saturday doubleheader.
For a second year in arrow the matchup between the Browns and the Raiders falls victim to special circumstances. In 2020 there was a big storm and the field was unplayable. This year it’s COVID. As of Thursday the Browns have 15 players with positive tests including QB Baker Mayfield. Head coach Kevin Stefanski is also positive and will miss the game as well. However Cleveland still has an intact DL and RB Nick Chubb is healthy. So despite the long list of absentees I think Cleveland will be fine.
The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing 48-9 loss to KC. They are a total mess but somehow they are still hovering around .500 for a long time. Being the only team in AFC West with a sub-.500 record after losing two games in a row, a loss on Saturday will bring them to the brink of elimination from playoff contention. They are projected to be on Saturday without CB Trayvon Mullen (toe), LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) and TE Darren Waller (knee, back) which will further expose their defense.
The line opened at Cleveland -6.5 but the COVID cases pushed it all the way to Raiders -1.5. I don’t believe in Las Vegas and will recommend backing the Browns in your NFL Week 15 picks.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Cleveland +1.5 (-120)
Seven weeks after suffering a shock 36-27 defeat at the hands of the Saints, the reigning Super Bowl champions get a chance for revenge. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win the NFC South division title with a win and will stay in the hunt for a home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Back in October QB Jameis Winston suffered a torn ACL midway through the first half and was replaced by Trevor Siemian. With the former Northwestern signal caller at the helm the Saints went 0-4 before turning over to Taysom Hill. New Orleans ended their five-game losing streak last Sunday beating the hapless Jets 30-9 to stay in wild card contention but any loss will be damaging to their playoff hopes.
RB Alvin Kamara finally returned after missing a month with a knee injury but Saints’ OL is still depleted. T Terron Armstead (knee) and T Ryan Ramczyk (knee) are questionable for Sunday as the former has been missing for more than a month. During which the Saints tumbled all the way down to #19 in total DVOA offense and #21 in rushing.
The Buccaneers are on a four-game winning streak (the longest current in the NFC) and are unbeaten at home this season. They edged out Buffalo 33-27 in overtime a week ago and coupled with the Cardinals’ loss a day later they moved a spot up in the NFC standings just behind Green Bay. With two games against Carolina and won against the Jets still to come, Tampa Bay is looking certain to win out and finish the regular season 14-3. Anything but a convincing win against New Orleans will be a huge surprise and I think you can back the Buccaneers with your NFL Week 15 picks against the spread.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Buccaneers -10.5 (-111)
The LA Rams shocked the world on Monday, beating the NFC leaders Arizona and keep their division title hopes alive. Despite being hard by COVID, the Rams earned a 30-23 win to move three games clear off the Vikings in the fifth spot almost guaranteeing playoff spot. They can secure it as early as Monday and will need some help but the win against Seattle is mandatory.
The Seahawks (5-8) are on their first winning streak of the season. They beat in back to back weeks San Francisco and Houston to get within a game of the final playoff spot in the NFC but with seven teams ahead of them it will be a miracle if they pull it out. And the game against the Texans was a clear example how far down Seattle has fallen. They let an absolutely atrocious team hang out for almost 55 minutes before two late TDs made the final score respectable – 33-13.
A win against LA will go a long way to keep the playoff spark alive but the Seahawks offense is still mediocre. In the latest DVOA rankings Seattle is sitting at #15 and will have tough times against #6-ranked defense in the league. It’s the first week they don’t have a RB on the injury report but three WRs, including DK Metcalf, missed practices because of different injuries. And their defense will probably miss DT Al Woods and Bryan Mone for the visit to the City of Angels.
The Rams have already beaten the Seahawks 26-17 in Week 5 and are the clear favorite on Sunday. The line dropped by a field goal because of the COVID situation therefore making it enticing to take them in NFL Week 15 picks straight up.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Rams Money Line (-192)
Detroit finally won their first game of the season before going back to being awful. The Lions were humiliated 38-10 by a not so good Broncos team a week ago although two factors contributed to the lopsided final score: the high number of COVID cases amongst Detroit players and Denver honoring the memory of late Demayrius Thomas. Now back home it’s the penultimate chance for the NFC bottom team to gain some reputation.
The Cardinals (10-3) not only lost their grip on the NFC home field advantage but also WR DeAndre Hopkins for the rest of the regular season. Head coach Kliff Kingsburry made some controversial decisions against the Rams on Monday opting to go for it on fourth down deep in opponents’ territory twice and left points on the field which came back to haunt him in the end. And one more time the Cardinals have proven that they play better away from home then in Phoenix. They are unbeaten (7-0) in away games but are only 3-3 at home!
This one is a no brainer. The Cardinals will win and the only real question is by how much? After the news of Hopkins’ injury broke out, the line dropped by more than two points but climbed back to 12.5 which is still manageable. After all Arizona has covered such a spread in six of their previous away games in 2021 and the only time they failed was against Chicago due to a TD in garbage time.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Cardinals -12.5 (-110)
Jaguars’ owner Shahid Khan finally ran out of patience and fired on Thursday head coach Urban Meyer ending his 11-month long reign. OC Darrell Bevel will take over for the rest of the season and his debut will be in a divisional matchup with draft implications. Both Jaguars and Texans have identical 2-11 records and the loser will make a big step towards the second selection in next year’s draft. But it’s not the most important thing for Jacksonville right now.
The Jaguars started the season with high expectations but reports quickly surfaced that the locker room atmosphere was contagious to say the least. On field there were a lot of questions about team strategy, play selection and leadership. Now it’s up to GM Trent Baalke to clear the mess and instill hope back into the fan base. And it all starts with a win against the lowly Texans.
By all standards Houston’s offense is godawful. They are dead last in total DVOA, dead last in rushing and second to last in passing. They are averaging just over 13 points per game and their two wins came against Jacksonville in Week 1 and Tennessee in a game in which QB Ryan Tannehill threw four INTs. They have won the past seven games against the Jaguars but it’s the perfect time for the streak to stop.
Our Expert NFL Pick for This Game: Jaguars -3.5 (-103)
We’ll begin with the needed clarification that NFL expert picks are selected betting predictions made by people with a particularly high level of knowledge and experience in uncovering the best bets in the league. When you go with them, you will receive perfectly reasonable suggestions on how to bet on carefully picked number games that give you the highest chance of winning. You will also become part of the ever-growing number of punters that follow these selected NFL expert picks Week 15 has on offer.
No one can force you to choose this route though. You would have a strong case for deciding to trust your own judgement when sports betting because this way you are fully responsible for both winning and losing. (And you won't hold a grudge against external factors when failing). There are so many reasons why the majority prefers expert picks and considers them to be the art form of NFL betting. See the most important ones below.
If you have decided in favor of following the experts’ advice with their special selection of NFL Week 15 predictions, your next job is to know and understand the specifics of the betting markets. The three most popular among football betting aficionados are:
All of them will for sure be offered to you by every online sportsbook, so let's look at each one and explain how they work. After that you’ll have a complete understanding of the matter and you’ll be 100% ready to explore the NFL Week 15 best bets.
The straight up or moneyline betting market is probably the simplest to understand. Here you will be offered odds about both of the teams involved in a NFL game and your only job is to wager on the team that you think will win. If your prediction is correct, your bet is a winning one and it will be settled at the odds you took. In short, when you see our NFL Week 15 picks straight up, you should be able to bet on them easily. Check the following example:
|Las Vegas Raiders||+195|
So let’s say you fancy Las Vegas to win the NFL game against the favorite Cleveland. You could bet on the Raiders at odds of +195 and a stake of $100 would therefore give you a profit of $195 if they succeed. On the other hand, you have to wager $240 on Cleveland and the Browns have to win the game for your profit to be $100. This is as straightforward an example as you would find and now you should be ready to take advantage of our NFL Week 15 picks straight up.
The reason why people look for NFL Week 15 picks against the spread is because the odds for the two teams in a particular game can be quite different. By trying to even them up, all sportsbooks offer point spread markets that impose an artificial handicap on the team in the role of the favorite. The spreads give the underdog team an equal and opposing advantage, and consequently the odds available tend to be much more balanced. Because of that, picks against the spread are in such demand. See this example:
Here you see Cincinnati being given an advantage of +1.5 points, while the favorite Denver have a handicap of -1.5 points. If you place a wager on the Broncos, they will need to win by 2 points or more for you to succeed. Bet on the Bengals and you will only lose if they lose by 2 points or more. With these conditions in place, the sportsbook is able to offer even odds for both teams (-110).
When turning to expert predictions, you will surely run across NFL Week 15 picks against the spread. Just wager on the named team in the point spread market and you’ll have your winning bet served on a plate if the pick is correct.
This is the third main betting market, so you will undoubtedly find many sources for NFL Week 15 over/under predictions. Here you only have one job: to predict whether the total number of points scored in the game by both teams combined will be Over or Under a total figure quoted by the sportsbook. Logically, that’s why this is also known as the Totals market. See the following example and you will get a grasp of the concept:
|Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams||Over 47.5/Under 47.5||-110/-110|
The good news is that over/under betting is just as simple as moneyline betting. (Especially if you have access to free NFL expert picks for Week 15 to help guide you through the process.) In our example, all you have to do is decide whether you think there will be over or under 47.5 points scored in the game by both teams combined. If you go for Over, there would need to be 48 points or more for your wager to succeed. Go for Under and there would need to be 47 points or fewer for your bet to win.
You got it now? If the answer is ‘yes’, check out our free expert picks above, find the best bets available for NFL Week 15 point totals and place a wager.
Check out the success rate of the NFL predictions provided by our experts and see what lies ahead in the future.
These are the expert’s betting choices for a NFL game and are based on hours and hours of research. You can either choose to follow these predictions or trust your own judgement.
There are many places where you can find NFL expert picks for Week 15. Not all experts are equal though, and most will charge you money to receive their predictions. The Week 15 NFL picks here at How To Bet are provided by some of the best specialists we’ve found in our extensive search. And the icing on the cake is that you can benefit from them completely for free.
In order to benefit from the NFL Week 15 best bets on the market, you need to do lots of research. You must check stats, injury lists, coach changes, weather forecast, and anything else that could affect the game. Most of all, you need to be able to analyse this information properly and also to read the game before all the action unfolds.
You can also follow expert NFL picks from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl. And it’s totally free here at How To Bet!
ESPN and CBS are regarded as the top of the pops for NFL picks among the big media outlets. But don’t hesitate to check How To Bet’s picks too. We have a great winning percentage that equals and many times even betters the success rates of some of the most popular experts.
Our Week 15 NFL picks are expert predictions based on solid data and analysis, but they are still only predictions. There is no guarantee that NFL picks from any source will win, and form upsets can occur at any point during the season. The only guarantee is that the expert picks have a much higher chance of winning because of the amount of work, knowledge, experience and advanced data access these specialists have. So always obey the golden rule of betting and never wager more than you can afford to lose in a worst-case scenario.
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