Here we are, heading into Week 11 of the 2021 National Football League season, and we still have absolutely no clue who the best teams are in the league.
Heck, we are now seven weeks from the end of the season, and 75 percent of the teams in the AFC are at 5-5 or better: basically, if you are under .500 in the AFC, you must be terrible. Only the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans are 3-7 or worse in the standings.
This jumble in the standings is going to make for a wacky sprint to the finish, and there are going to be some teams with decent records that get left out of the playoffs.
How about the NFC, you say? Well, that is the complete opposite. Only six teams have winning records, and five of them look to be locked to make the playoffs. Might we see a team with a losing record make the postseason in the NFC? It is a distinct possibility.
What does all of this mean, though, for bettors and fans? Basically, there are a lot of teams that are pretty even, and the lines will reflect that in the coming weeks as teams battle for playoff spots. Sure, you are still going to see double-digit lines like we have all season. But the lines are going to start to tighten up for the other games, and I think we see that for Week 11.
Many of the games this week pit teams around each other in the standings, and the number of opening lines below a field goal is probably at its highest all year.
Once again, it offers some value for players looking at underdog money lines, and even some for the spread line on the favorites: with lines so low, if you win the game, you are probably going to cover.
Here is a look at all the odds and games for NFL Week 11.
Here are your updated NFL Week 11 odds, all in one place. Check back daily to see updates.
These Thursday Night Football games are getting harder and harder to handicap. Just look at last week’s stunning win by the Dolphins over Baltimore.
You would think Bill Belichick would be the master at getting his team, which is on a four-game winning streak, ready on short rest. New England is flying into this matchup and looks to be the clear favorite.
But then you think, oh yeah, it is 2021. I would not be stunned to see a response from Atlanta after it was embarrassed last week.
Read more about this in our Thursday Night Football Best Odds & Bets guide.
Both teams played in the late window last week, and both came away with huge victories. Green Bay had an impressive showing on defense, shutting down Russell Wilson and holding the Seahawks scoreless in a 17-0 win.
Minnesota might have been even more impressive, going to Los Angeles and beating the Chargers 27-20 to get close to .500. Am I sold on the Vikings? No, but a win here would go a long way towards a potential playoff berth.
This has become a very big game after the Colts did what I have been predicting for weeks and got to .500 after a 1-4 start to the season. Their lone loss in the last five weeks was 34-31 to the Titans, who might be the best team in the NFL.
Buffalo also lost 34-31 to the Titans a few weeks ago, and is now one loss away from a potential tie at the top of the AFC East standings with the Patriots. By the way, the Pats and Bills will play twice in four weeks: Week 13 and Week 16.
Two teams NO ONE can figure out will battle in Philly, with the Eagles trying to move one game from .500 and squarely into the NFC playoff picture. Philadelphia went out to Denver and dominated the Broncos, but its away record (4-2) has not been the issue in 2021. The Eagles are 0-4 at the Linc.
The Saints lost two close games in their last two, and could do with a win. They have played very tough on the road
Not sure there is too much to say about this game, but this has also been just the type of surprise result that has plagued bettors over the last few weeks of the NFL season.
Houston stinks, and is in the running for the top pick in the 2022 draft. Tennessee does not stink, and can once again make a statement of intent with a dominant performance here: good teams just take care of business in games like this.
San Francisco comes in off a short week, and has to make the long flight across the country to face an improving Jacksonville team that is 2-2 in its last four and played decent in a tough 23-17 loss to the Colts on the weekend.
I would not be stunned to see the Jags play well here at home, with everything that was said above. But I have said that on multiple occasions, and then they throw in a clunker.
Two more surprise results from these two teams, as both come into this week of impressive results.
Washington stunned the Bucs 29-19, scoring late to clinch the victory. It was one of those results that knocked EVERYONE out of parlays and knockout pools. Carolina went out to the desert and smoked the banged-up Cards 34-10, jumping back into the thick of the NFC playoff battle. This is now actually a very big game for the playoffs.
Break up the Dolphins! Miami can put together a three-game win streak with a win in New Jersey this weekend, and are in the middle of a stretch of games that MIGHT see them get close to .500.
New York fell back down to Earth after two decent showings, getting blown out 45-17 by Buffalo. Who is going to play QB for the Jets?
Ah, the hapless Detroit Lions. They finally did not lose a game, after 12-straight defeats dating back to last season. But the Lions being the Lions, they did not win, either. But hey, it is a start!
Cleveland is a mess, after the Pats packed the box and dared Baker Mayfield to beat them. That did not work out very well, as the Browns lost 45-7 after taking a 7-0 lead. No idea what to expect here, but you would think the Browns rebound, though I am not sure Cleveland should be laying double-digits against anyone right now.
Well, the Chicago Bears did not lose last week, either: but unlike the Lions, they did not tie; they just had a bye week. Justin Fields is still learning, and now gets to go up against a very angry Baltimore team that will be rested as well.
Why are the Ravens rested? Well, they took last Thursday night off in a 22-10 loss to the Dolphins. But as has been the pattern of the so called “good” teams in 2021, I expect a response here.
Both of these teams are in the thick of the AFC playoff race, along with most of the conference. Both of these teams started 5-2, and both have regressed back towards the mean in the last few weeks.
Which team is going to show up? I would probably side with the Bengals here, coming in fresh from the bye, rather than a Raiders’ side that just made Patrick Mahomes look like Patrick Mahomes for the first time in 2021. Thanks, Las Vegas!
I think you can excuse the loss for the Cardinals, since it was always going to have at least one poor showing without so many offensive starters. But the defense was embarrassed in the 34-10 loss to Carolina, and that may see a strong response this week.
Road teams also do well in this division, plus, the Seahawks are a shell of their former selves. I would be stunned to see Seattle show up and play well here after last week, and I think Arizona plays well on the bounce back.
What to say about this game right now, other than it is a big-time test for both teams. Kansas City’s offense FINALLY showed up, in primetime no less, as Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards and five TDs in the 41-14 rout of the Raiders. I have been saying for weeks that once this team wakes up, it could be lights out for the rest of the teams.
But Dallas is also playing well, after they mauled the Falcons 43-3. The Cowboys responded from an embarrassing loss (seeing a trend yet) in a big way. This should be a high-scoring, entertaining affair in the late window.
I know Big Ben did not play, but a tie? Against the Lions? C’mon man!
But at least they did not lose (wink, wink, LA). The Chargers fell 27-20 at home to the Minnesota Vikings, and are very quickly becoming the bane to most bettors’ existences.
The crazy thing is, the winner (if there is one, wink, wink, Pittsburgh) is in good shape to make the AFC playoffs. Welcome to the 2021 NFL!
Read more about this game in our Sunday Night Football Odds & Best Bets guide.
New York makes the trip down to Florida rested after a bye week, and might be getting some players back in the fold.
What else can I say about Tampa Bay, other than EVERY SINGLE PERSON I talked to this week had the Bucs in some form of parlay. Thank you, Tom Brady. But there will (may) be a response this week. However, the defense is banged up, and might be exposed.
Read more about this game in our Monday Night Football Best Bets & Odds guide.
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